Advised bets:
2pt ew Gillingham 16/1 Gen
1pt ew Shrewsbury 14/1 Coral
.5pt ew Crewe Alexandra 40/1 Coral and 1pt ew (handicap +22pts ) 18/1 Will Hill
1pt Morecambe to go down 11/2 Bet365
1pt Plymouth to go down 10/1 Skybet
1pt ew Constable top scorer 25/1 Will Hill
.5pt ew Byron Moore top scorer 80/1 Coral
League Two looks the most competitive it has been for some time, and a decent case can be made for any of the top 12 or so sides in the market. This preview will have a look at all the contenders, the sides watching their backs, one for the handicap market and a couple of recommendations for top goalscorer.
With the considerable resources of the two promoted sides and four relegated sides, the whole host of nearly teams from last year will find it difficult to maintain their finishing positions. Having said that, it could be that the 3 automatic and 1 promotion place via the play offs are filled by teams who have been there, done that, and know what League 2 is all about.
The bookies have Crawley as 3/1 favourites, given their spending power, their runaway Conference win, and the perceived similarity in standard between the two divisions. There then follow a whole host of sides in the 10/1-16/1 bracket, such as Bristol Rovers, Swindon, Oxford, Gillingham, Shrewsbury and Rotherham who will all fancy their chances.
With so much that is unknown about sides like Crawley, Bristol Rovers and Swindon, it may be safer to rely on teams that were there or thereabouts last season when trying to find the League Two winners.
Shrewsbury were very unlucky not to go up last season, have no real weaknesses and the winning combination of ability and mental fortitude to go one better than last season. They are my bet to top the league.
They will be run all the way by Gillingham. Hessenthaler's Gills will attempt to prove that you can bully your way out of League 2, and with the acquisition of Kedwell and Birchall (injured for the first few months of 11/12) they may well succeed. I have the two sides so close that I have backed them both, but with a bigger stake on the Gills to take into account the larger price.
The two sides with the brightest attacking prospects may well be Oxford and Crewe. Both sides would have been up automatically last season if it wasn't for defensive frailties. They may be the two sides who contest the third automatic spot. Oxford look more solid this season and are a best priced 12/1; it may pay to instead back James Constable for the divisions top goalscorer at 25/1.
Crewe have lost last year's golden boot, Clayton Donaldson, but should still has loads of goals in them with Miller and Moore both capable of firing the Alex to glory. Both have been on fire in preseason, and Byron Moore, finding the best form of his career, is also worth a punt at 80/1 for top scorer. Miller is also likely to be right up at the top of the charts, is as short as 10/1 in places but can be backed at 16/1 with Will Hill.
Crewe are worth taking a small chance with each way at Coral's 40/1, as they are probably the best team in the division on a going day. They beat the three automatically promoted sides 2-0, 3-0 and 3-0 last season, won other games 8-0 and 7-1 and had a number of other resounding wins. You are taking a chance on a creaky defence and a woeful away record improving, but that is quite possible in Dario Gradi's second full season since taking control again. It is also worth backing Crewe on the handicap markets, and Will Hill's quote of +22 points at 18/1 looks reasonable.
Club by club breakdown:
Accrington Stanley
Home form and Proctor's leadership should again see them safe.
Relegation Best Price = 8/1 BSQ
finishing position = bottom half/mid table.
AFC Wimbledon
On a high and have a winning mentality but Kedwell a big loss up front.
BP = 33/1 Skybet
Pos = mid table/top half
Aldershot Town
Goals will be their achilles heel but excellent defence secures safety
BP = 40/1 Coral
Pos = mid table
Barnet
Great escape means spirits are high. Kabba and McLeod will get the goals to ensure safety.
Rel BP = 4/1 Skybet
Pos = bottom half but safe
Bradford City
Sleeping giants will underperform again but should see downward spiral ending
BP = 25/1 Will Hill
Pos = midtable
Bristol Rovers
Signings look good on paper for relegated Pirates but they may miss out on automatic promotion.
BP = 10/1 Gen
Pos = Play offs
Burton Albion
A number of players in and out so Pesch has a lot of work to do to find a winning side.
Rel BP = 8/1 VC
Pos = bottom half but safe
Cheltenham Town
Wes Thomas is a big loss and they could struggle again. May rely on a points deduction elsewhere.
Rel BP = 10/3 Gen
Pos = just safe
Crawley Town
Newly promoted and big spenders but too short with several players unproven at L2.
BP = 3/1 Gen
Pos = play off contenders
Crewe Alexandra
Improving youngsters should make up for departures, possible surprise outfit.
BP = 40/1 Coral
Pos = play offs
Dagenham and Redbridge
Too much power for many but goals will be the problem.
BP = 33/1 Gen
Pos = mid table
Gillingham
Hessenthaler knows all about getting out of League 2. Kedwell will provide the goals for muscular outfit
BP = 16/1 Gen
Pos = top 3
Hereford United
Goals may again be hard to come to but they should have enough to survive again.
Rel BP = 11/2 Skybet
Pos = Bottom 6
Macclesfield Town
Team spirit has seen Macc survive for 12 seasons at this level, and will be needed once again following departures.
Rel BP = 10/3 Gen
Pos = Safe
Morecambe
Last season was a big disappointment compared to the season before but it could continue to get worse.
Rel BP = 11/2 Bet 365
Pos = down
Northampton Town
Top boss and several signings but may just miss out on play offs
BP = 20/1 Coral/VC
Pos = Top half
Oxford United
Excellent form in the second half of last season, real promotion contenders.
BP = 12/1 Gen
Pos = top 4
Plymouth Argyle
Two consecutive relegations and financial woes have hurt and there could be more pain this year Rel
BP = 10/1 Skybet/Will Hill
Pos = down
Port Vale
Mickey Adams is crucial to Vale's season. If he can replicate the early 10/11 success Vale could go up but boardroom unrest could unsettle campaign.
BP = 25/1 Gen
Pos = top half
Rotherham United
Perennial nearly men will have the goals of Le Fondre but could miss out yet again.
BP = 18/1 Bet365/Skybet
Pos = play off contenders
Shrewsbury Town
Possibly the best all round unit and should contend for title BP = 14/1 Bet365/Coral Pos = Champions
Southend United
Look an improved side and top half is the least they should expect with Harris' goals.
BP = 25/1 Gen
Pos = top half
Swindon Town
Difficult to know what to expect from Di Canio's lot.
BP = 9/1 Gen
Pos = Play offs
Torquay United
A possible season of disappointment following play off heartache and departures
BP = 33/1 Gen
Pos = bottom half
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