The 'Noisy Neighbours' open their Premier League campaign with what looks on paper to be an easy start, a home game to newly promoted Swansea City. The City of Manchester Stadium (Eastlands to you and I) has just been renamed in the most lucrative naming rights deal ever as the Etihad City of Manchester Stadium. Etihad might well look at that deal as a bargain after tonight, because I am expecting the game of the weekend, in what should be an excellent 'advert' for English football. Both teams play lovely football, both teams are pretty tight at the back, and there should be a superb atmosphere from both sets of fans.
City have spent big in the summer, capturing Gael Clichy, Stefan Savic and Sergio Aguero, and while I expect all three to be big hits in time, it remains to be seen how ready they are for the start of the season. Aguero, who will make a wonderful player for City, is said to be only fit enough to play 45 minutes. Tevez is back, but will be too stuffed full of humble pie to be able to contribute much, and Dzeko is still finding his feet in English football. Their Community Shield defeat to Manchester United may have given them some much needed match practice, but it will also have been somewhat deflating, not only because they lost from 2-0 up but also because it was a deserved defeat - they were outplayed. They will need to move on from that display fast.
Swansea, on the other hand, will be as ready as possible and raring to go. Summer signings Wayne Routledge, Danny Graham, Steven Caulker and Michael Vorm may not be household names, but if Brendan Rogers can slot them in to the same way of playing he orchestrated last year, the Swans will take to Premier League football like errrr...Swans to water. The Swans were the best footballing team outside the Premier League last season, and were defensively sound as well. In Scott Sinclair they have one of the most impressive young talents in the country and it would be no surprise to see him score tonight.
Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea have all failed to win on the opening day this year, and City aren't the fastest starters, with only 1 win from their last 6 openers. Also, promoted teams tend to do quite well in the first few weeks of the season. It could be argued that those facts don't have any relevance to tonight, but this one might - Swansea 'won to nil' an impressive 17 times from 46 games last year. If City aren't switched on they could be taken by surprise by a Swans side that will come and play their stuff. Swans' boss Brendan Rogers proved he was capable of producing that rarest of things, a winning team that also played beautiful football. I think his outfit can continue the work from last season and come away from the most expensively named stadium in the world with a result.
City are priced at 1.38 (just under 2/5) with Betfair, which to me looks like a lay. This means a Swansea win or a draw would be a winner for us. I have also toyed with the idea of laying Man City to score first at a similar price. But I decided instead to back Sinclair to score at anytime at 7.6 (a shade over 13/2) on Betfair. I have also had a speculative punt on 2-2, to reflect a good match and a good start for Swansea. This price is 34.0 (33/1). Those who wanted to be less speculative but like the reasoning might want to go for both teams to score at 2.32 (13/10) or Over 2.5 goals at 3.25 (9/4).
Lastly, Swansea are currently favourites for the drop, at 1.75 (3/4) on Betfair. Laying this is basically backing Swansea to stay up at 4/3, and we think this is a must bet for the team we think could surprise a few teams this season.
Selected bets
Risk 2 pts to win 5 - Lay Man City @ 1.38 (Betfair)
1pt Sinclair anytime goalscorer @ 7.6 (Betfair)
1/4 pt 2-2 @ 34.0 (Betfair)
Risk 3 points to win 4 - Lay Swansea to be relegated @ 1.75 (Betfair)
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