Tour de France 2011: Preview and tips

Overview:

The biggest farce surrounding this year’s Tour centres around overall favourite, Alberto Contador. He is the subject of an on-going doping investigation, after testing positive for the banned clenbuterol during last year’s race. Contador claimed the failed test was caused by eating contaminated beef. He was cleared initially, but a final hearing will come after the Tour. However, you never can tell with professional cycling, and a final scene twist is never out of the question.

Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck, like in 2010, are set to go head-to-head on July 2^nd. Only 39 seconds separated them in Paris last year, which was the 5^th smallest winning margin ever. Many people are talking about Andy Schleck’s slipped chain costing him a possible win, but they readily forget the Paris-Roubaix cobbles that allowed Schleck to pinch a minute on with the assistance of Cancellara. In its place early on this year’s route, there will be a great spectacle of a 23km Team Time Trial which could provide Cancellara with a similar platform to drive the Schlecks ahead in the General Classification.

Stages:

It is not until mid-way through the tour, on Bastille Day, that the mountains get truly nasty. There are 3 finishing climbs on the stage into Luz-Ardiden, including the vicious Col de Tourmalet. Another mountain-top finish in the Pyrennes into Plateau de Beille will separate the main contenders.

A gruelling last week is in store in the Alps, with the continual 200km grind of stage 18 up the Col Agnel, Izoard and the mighty Galibier (which provides the highest finish in Tour history). Following this there will be the unusual spectacle of a 100km stage, but the riders will be peddling in the shadow of the famous hairpins bends of Alpe d’Huez. This is such a short stage that the main contenders may attack very early on up the Telegraphe and Galibier.

Finally, there is a 42.5 Individual Time Trial at Grenoble before the Champs-Elysees, This is run on the same course as in the Dauphine, so riders who have already competed over it are at an advantage.

Form:

A lot has been made of form going into this year, with Britain’s Bradley Wiggins looking every bit the powerful ‘rouleur’ who can stick with the contenders on the mountain-tops. Cadel Evans had a subdued Dauphine and, despite a more promising performance on the penultimate stage, it looked like he had left a little bit to work on. Both riders were cooked after the Giro d’Italia in 2010 and come much fresher and better prepared this time. Team Sky are now a year older and wiser and are no longer Tour virgins.

Alberto Contador was imperious in what was a gruelling and monstrous Giro. Conversely, whispers have started about the Schlecks after a fairly unimpressive Tour de Suisse for both brothers, but this was just leg-stretching. Ivan Basso has been completely anonymous in his build-up, perhaps using the Dauphine to view some rather nice scenery.

Verdict:

Yellow

Contador’s Saxobank team have lost a lot of riders to Schleck’s new team, Leopard-Trek. This will lend a further interesting dynamic to the rivalry for the maillot jaune. Saxobank have a strong mix of mostly Spaniards and Danes, but Leopard-Trek have the edge with riders like Cancellara, Voigt and Frank Schleck. Expect Contador to have a strong Pyrenees but fade in the last week after a long Giro and Tour. ANDY SCHLECK (Best price: 12/5) will be the only one in contention to capitalise.

For the podium, there is no Menchov this time; his new team Geox-TMC didn’t get a licence from UCI. It is wide open and will pay to go each way at big prices, rather than with the ‘without Big 2’ market (as a 'left-field' attack could stick in the Alps). Wiggins is targeting 3^rd place, but Team Sky might also fade in the final week. The Grenoble time trial gives him a very realistic chance. Evans will stay with the leaders in the most part, but his climbing style is exposed by rapid attacks. Samuel Sanchez’s Euskaltel team will concentrate on breakaways and stage wins, and lose too much time in the team trial. Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, Ryder Hesjedal and Edvald Boassen Hagen will have a sniff at enormous prices and Jurgen van den Broeck is in prime form and one of the most improved climbers in the peloton. However, FRANK SCHLECK (bp 55/1 ew) is a similar price to van den Broeck and the race may pan out for him to attack on Alpe d’Huez as the brothers look to expose any weakness in Contador. He is a proven Tour rider, crashed out last year and has the edge over the other podium contenders.

Green

MARK CAVENDISH has fewer pancake-flat routes to suit the sprinters, as there are a lot of mid-category lumpy stages. Last year’s narrow defeat in the points classification to Petacchi has taught the Manx Missile what it will take to win the green jersey this year. His team are rock-solid, and withstanding an early propensity to crash, he will notch up 5 stage wins and take green in Paris.

Polka-dot

It is more difficult to bet pre-race on this market than in the past, when a rider like Virenque would be a given to claim the mountain-climber mantle. Particularly as one bad day can turn the focus of an overall contender to stage wins or the polka-dot jersey. Without Rodriguez, Cunego has a chance, but could be blowing too hard after the Tour de Suisse and doesn’t ever seem to fire for Le Tour. It is also not beyond possibility that a podium contender will pick this prize up by accident, as they have been getting closer in recent years.

French teams have taken a liking to the sartorial panache of the polka-dot jersey with Bouygues Telecom’s Chartreaux topping the climbing points last year. In JOHN GADRET and Nicolas Roche, AG2r have good GC riders, but one could possibly recalibrate their sights if they fall out of the top 10.

Outright winner - Andy Schleck 2pts @ 12/5

To place - Frank Schleck 1pt ew @ 55/1

Green Jersey - Mark Cavendish 3pts @ 6/4

Polka-dot Jersey - John Gadret 1pt @ 33/1

Top 6 - Levi Leipheimer 1pt, Ryder Hesjedal 1pt