I'm no mug, no mug at all.

Saturday, 18 June 2011

The French Champion Hurdle

As an animal, I have an insight into horses that is deeper than yours. I can get into their minds, whilst you are left blaming the jockey.

The French Champion Hurdle takes place today at Auteuil and my selection runs there. When French raider Makfi won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket he was available at 40/1 in most places and was trading at 80 on Betfair, however the price on the Tote was 12/1 due to the weight of French money. The French could only bet via the Tote, whereas when the boot is on the other foot, like today, we have the option to take our own industry SP today or to take the PMU (Pari-mutuel urbain).

The PMU works in the same way as the Tote, meaning the price for each horse is directly dependent on the number of bets staked on each runner. France are represented in the race today by the fancied Bel la Vie and the less fancied Roi du Val, and the price for these runners on the PMU is likely to be much shorter than the English industry SP. This means there is likely to be value on the English and Irish trained runners, namely Grand Crus, Thousand Stars, Mourad and Final Approach. To take the PMU stress that you want to take that price on your betting slip, or if betting by phone, stress it to your operator. Make sure they take PMU bets. Most should.

Of the runners from Britain and Ireland, Grand Crus will be the shortest price following its narrow defeat to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but there has to be a suspicion that this race is something of an afterthought for the Pipe yard. The fact that Mullins comes into this three-handed makes me think this race has been high on the agenda.

Of Mullins' trio, Thousand Stars has a lot going for it, having come second to Bel la Vie in the warm up; the Prix la Barka, here at Auteuil in May and with Ruby taking the ride today. The extended 3m 1f trip is new ground for Thousand Stars, however. Final Approach also ran in that race, but finished further back. Casey takes the ride, but it would be a surprise to see Final Approach winning today.

Mullins' third horse is MOURAD, ridden today by Katie Walsh. Mourad didn't compete in the Prix la Barka, but does have experience at Auteuil as a youngster. Mourad's third in the World Hurdle is impressive form. Mourad has two and three quarter lengths to make up on Big Buck's, but that will be factored into the price today. I expect Mourad will be the least well known to the French public, and as such, we should be getting a good price.

The recommendation is 2 points staked on PMU win Mourad and 2 points PMU place. Just make sure your bookmaker will accept PMU bets. Most will.

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