I turn my attention to the European Tour, and the BMW International in Munich. This is the most prestigious German tournament on the calendar, so it is no surprise to see 2008 winner Martin Kaymer in the field. More of a surprise is Dustin Johnson, who is clearly trying to play more tournaments worldwide to broaden his horizons and game. These two are favourites, but neither showed the greatest form last week at Congressional, and I think it is worth taking them both on. Kaymer's game still hasn’t come back to its best since the swing changes he made ahead of Augusta, and you feel that this tournament cannot have been number 1 priority on the calendar for Dustin.
Next in the market comes Sergio who has been showing much improved form in recent weeks, but while his demeanor is so sullen, and his putter so unco-operative, it is difficult to back him with any confidence. Young Italian superstar Matteo Mannassero is next in the betting, and whilst he clearly is a major talent, his fall from contention in Turin two weeks ago shows he isnt the finished article yet, and while his game is clearly improving; he seems to have added about 20 yards with the big stick this year alone; he is probably underpriced on his achievements.
As always, having several towards the top of the field that are opposable means there is some value further down the list. The first selection is ROSS FISHER at 33/1. Fisher has had a couple of barren years, but is one of the most talented on the tour. It was only two years ago he looked the most likely European to pick up a major, getting in contention in the Masters, the Open and the US Open without ever quite getting home. Since becoming a father Fisher has not hit the same heights, but the Ryder Cup player has shown some signs of a return to form this year. He was 15th in the Masters, his best ever position, before a poor final round led to a disappointing 39th in his home tournament BMW Championship. He struggled in the Welsh Open and just missed out on qualification for the US Open. It is this which I feel could give him the incentive he needs to raise his game and get back to the top of his form, starting with the BMW International Open, a tournament he has always performed well in, and improved every year. 86th in 2006, he was 26th in 2007, 12th in 2008 and 2nd last year.
The second pick is Ricardo Gonzalez, at 100/1. Gonzalez has a similar game to his compatriot, Angel Cabrera. He has some decent finishes in this tournament with three top 20s, including a 4th in 2007. A big hitting shotmaker he is in top form currently, with a 4th place finish in Wales and a 13th place at Wentworth. Gonzalez has 4 wins on the European Tour, but only one since 2003, which came at the 2009 SAS Masters. He seems to be in the zone at the moment though, and it would be no surprise to see him competing this week.
The third pick is big hitting Frenchman Victor Dubuisson. He blasted his way into contention in Wales before dropping away on the Sunday, and then almost repeated the trick in Turin, when a 10-under 2nd round 62 saw him threaten the leaders going into the weekend. His lack of consistency told over the weekend, where rounds of 72 and 71 saw him fade back into 39th, but every week is a learning experience for him and at 125/1 he is well worth a dabble to make the lessons pay off handsomely.
Next pick is David Howell, at 200/1. Howell is currently 72nd on the Race to Dubai list, but has played some decent golf at times this year, finishing 11th in Andalucia and 5th in Qatar. More importantly, Howell is a past winner of this tournament, taking it down in 2005. We have seen a few veterans do well this season, like Paul Lawrie, David Toms and just last week, Davis Love played some superb stuff at Congressional. It would be no surprise to see Howell turn the clock back and plot his way round the Golfclub Munchen.
Last pick is Dubuisson's playing partner, Jin Jeong. Jeong is a 21 year old Korean who sprang to the attention when he won the British Amateur Open in 2010. He then followed this up with a 14th place finish in the Open itself that year. Although Jeong hasn’t achieved that much on the European Tour in his other appearances, he is a talented links player and can make an impact round here.
Fisher 4 pts e/w @ 33/1 Will Hill
Gonzalez 2 pt ew @ 100/1 Totesport
Dubuisson 1.5 pt e/w @ 125/1 Skybet
Howell 1pt e/w @ 200/1 Totesport
Jeong .5pt e/w @ 750/1 Totesport
Total staked 20 points
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