Back Bantams to stop Owls hooting

New regulations in the Johnstone Paint Trophy mean managers must field a line up that features 6 starting players from their last league fixture, or 6 players from their next league fixture. Many managers wont be used to having a rule telling them who they can pick, and I can see the typical reaction being that managers will do their best to change their team, which will mean 'resting' their best 5 players.

As League One teams may well see this tournament as even more of a waste of time than their League Two counterparts, it may pay to look for a few shocks. I certainly think the way to approach this is to look for teams who have something to play for.

Hereford travel to Bournemouth and may be worth taking a chance on tonight. Bournemouth have lost four on the spin in League 1, and will probably look on this as an opportunity to rest some of their senior players. Hereford, 23rd in League 2, will look to give a number of new signings an opportunity to prove themselves, and I think the 6.6 about Hereford is worth a small play.

Burton have been very difficult to beat so far this season, and they will be looking forward to the visit of Sheffield United to the Pirelli Stadium. Sheffield United are another team who will look on this tournament as getting in the way of their promotion campaign, and there wont be a tear shed if the Blades arent in the hat for the next round.

Bradford (nap) will be one side who surely wont play a weakened side. with new manager Phil Parkinson in place, and fresh off a 4-2 win against Barnet. Bradford will be well up for the visit of rivals Sheffield Wednesday, and are worth backing to upset them at 3.4. Bradford came very close to beating Championship side Leeds in the Carling Cup, and against League 1 Wednesday, will have another opportunity to upset Yorkshire rivals.

Lastly, Exeter are quite short against local rivals Plymouth at 1.61, but Plymouth are in all sorts of trouble on and off the pitch, and could face a mauling against Devon rivals here. Plymouth couldnt even find a way past the leakiest defence in world football on Saturday, going down 1-0 at home to Crewe, and even a weakened Exeter side should find enough to beat the Pilgrims in this sorry state.

3pts Exeter v Plymouth @ 1.61
2pts Bradford v Sheff Weds @ 3.4
1pt Burton v Sheff Utd @ 4
1pt Bournemouth v Hereford @ 6.6

Barca to dismantle Villarreal

Tonight sees the prospect of a La Liga licking. The following selections have appeal:

First goalscorer
Pedro @ 7.2, Fabregas @ 10.5 - 2 pts each

Anytime goalscorer
Messi @ 1.62 - 4 pts

Correct scoreline
4-0 @ 15, 5-0 @ 27 - 1 pt each

To score in both halves
Barca  @ 1.75 - 4 pts

Vamos!

Back Vale to Slam Stanley

In the Premier League I fancy the chances of Swansea and Blackburn.

Swansea are my biggest bet of the day today. I think they were fantastic against Man City for an hour, before eventually being swatted away when the big boys flexed their muscles, but against Wigan in front of their home crowd for their first ever Premier League game I can see a convincing win.

Blackburn are a selection mainly because I think Villa look a very poor side this season. I can actually see both these sides struggling, and the only positive piece of transfer news for Villa fans, who are normally miserable anyway, was the capture of Shay Given. He kept Fulham at bay but I can see Blackburn nicking a goal 
past him this afternoon and that might be enough.

In the Championship Southampton play Millwall and I have gone for +2.5 goals @ 1.95. Southampton scored hatfuls in League One last season and they have gone about life in the Championship in the same way. Millwall were 2-0 up against Posh before conceding two late goals for a 2-2 draw, and they are the sort of damaging matches that leads to introspection. I can see Southampton getting at least a couple again today, and wouldnt be surprised to see Millwall score too.

I have backed Crystal Palace at 5.1 to win at Hull. Hull are a decent enough side but confidence is low after a 4-1 mauling at Leeds whereas the Palace changing room must be jumping after they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with two late goals agaisnt Coventry in midweek.

In League 1 I think Hartlepool are a bit overpriced judging by what they have done so far this season, being 4.6 away at Stevenage. Stevenage are a solid outfit but I fancy Hartlepool to nick an away win this afternoon.

In League 2 I have stuck with Port Vale who have started life back under Mickey Adams in fine form, with a comfortable win and two decent draw. With Tom Pope playing up with Marc Richards they have an impressive frontline, and their midfield is one of the best in the division. Accrington are consistently underrated but Im going to risk making that mistake an oppose them today.

3 pts SWANSEA v Wigan @ 2.1
3 pts PORT VALE v Accrington @ 2.32
3 pts Southampton v Millwall OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.95
1pt treble SWANSEA, PORT VALE & Southampton v Millwall OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 8.66
2 pts Stevenage v HARTLEPOOL @ 4.6
1 pt Hull v CRYSTAL PALACE @ 5.1
1 pt Aston Villa v BLACKBURN @ 6.2


Total staked = 14 pts

Crazy Gang to Punish Pilgrims

I got it wrong yesterday and thought Citeh might be a bit rusteh, but they were simply stunning in the second half. I went to '98 Atletico v Santander match where Aguero scored a couple of beauties in a 4-1 win and have been following his progress since then but that was an outstanding debut. I was right about one thing in my preview, Etihad would be pleased with the association with what I thoguht would be the best match to watch of the weekend's fixtures.

Anyway, there's a few that scream value tonight. I would have liked to oppose Arsenal with their absences if they were playing against last year's Udinese side, but the prices look about right to me. Udinese will try and sit back, hitting Arsenal on the counter, which they are very good at, so it will be interesting to see if Arsenal's defence holds up. 1-1 or even 2-1 would be a pretty shaky result to take over there.

Domestically, there are a few selections.

3pts Plymouth v WIMBLEDON @ 2.86. Plymouth were dismantled piece by piece by Rotherham and Le Fondre on Saturday, and they look a very inexperienced side. Carl Fletcher is out for tonight's game as well, which weakens them further. Meanwhile, Wimbledon have had a decent start to life, losing a little unluckily to Bristol Rovers in their season opener before getting underway with a win at the weekend. I expect the euphoria to continue tonight, and The Crazy Gang to inflict further grief on Plymouth fans.

3pts Crewe v Rotherham OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.84. Crewe have been overs 3/3 in their three matches so far, whilst Rotherham have been overs 2/3 times. Crewe are an inexperienced side filled with exciting attacking talents, but who are often let down by defensive lapses. Rotherham have Adam le Fondre, amongst others, and come off a 4-1 win (from 1-0 down) at Plymouth.

2pts Burton v PORT VALE @ 3.1 This is almost a derby, its about 20 minutes down the A50 from Stoke to Burton. Vale, fresh off a 3-1 win at Barnet, will be roared on by 2500 nutters tonight, and I expect them to come away with 3 points. The big question for me was whether Mickey Adams would be able to work his magic again this season? He had them top of the league last year when he left to go to Sheff Utd, and the team is virtually the same, but there is boardroom unrest this year that could have undermined his efforts. In Gary Roberts they have one of the best midfielders around, and it looks like Adams has him firing, and I cant see Vale being available at 3.1, whoever they play, many times this season.

1pt CRYSTAL PALACE v Coventry @ 2.14. The Sky Blues seem so low key this year that you could be forgiven for thinking they are almost down already. Palace, on the other hand, seem to be making slow and steady strides away from the relegation fodder they were early last season. Palace have a few missing tonight, but not as many as Coventry, who surely cant expect much from tonight other than to keep it tight for as long as they can.

3pts Plymouth v WIMBLEDON @ 2.86 (19/10) Betfair
3pts Crewe v Rotherham Over 2.5 @ 1.84 (17/20) Betfair
2pts Burton v PORT VALE @ 3.1 (21/10) Betfair
1pt CRYSTAL PALACE v Coventry @ 2.14 (23/20) Betfair
1pt treble - Wimbledon, Port Vale, Crewe v Rotherham +2.5 goals @ 14.33 (13/1) Betfair

Total staked = 10pts

Elegant Swans to Float at Eastlands

The 'Noisy Neighbours' open their Premier League campaign with what looks on paper to be an easy start, a home game to newly promoted Swansea City. The City of Manchester Stadium (Eastlands to you and I) has just been renamed in the most lucrative naming rights deal ever as the Etihad City of Manchester Stadium. Etihad might well look at that deal as a bargain after tonight, because I am expecting the game of the weekend, in what should be an excellent 'advert' for English football. Both teams play lovely football, both teams are pretty tight at the back, and there should be a superb atmosphere from both sets of fans.

City have spent big in the summer, capturing Gael Clichy, Stefan Savic and Sergio Aguero, and while I expect all three to be big hits in time, it remains to be seen how ready they are for the start of the season. Aguero, who will make a wonderful player for City, is said to be only fit enough to play 45 minutes. Tevez is back, but will be too stuffed full of humble pie to be able to contribute much, and Dzeko is still finding his feet in English football. Their Community Shield defeat to Manchester United may have given them some much needed match practice, but it will also have been somewhat deflating, not only because they lost from 2-0 up but also because it was a deserved defeat - they were outplayed. They will need to move on from that display fast.

Swansea, on the other hand, will be as ready as possible and raring to go. Summer signings Wayne Routledge, Danny Graham, Steven Caulker and Michael Vorm may not be household names, but if Brendan Rogers can slot them in to the same way of playing he orchestrated last year, the Swans will take to Premier League football like errrr...Swans to water. The Swans were the best footballing team outside the Premier League last season, and were defensively sound as well. In Scott Sinclair they have one of the most impressive young talents in the country and it would be no surprise to see him score tonight.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea have all failed to win on the opening day this year, and City aren't the fastest starters, with only 1 win from their last 6 openers. Also, promoted teams tend to do quite well in the first few weeks of the season. It could be argued that those facts don't have any relevance to tonight, but this one might - Swansea 'won to nil' an impressive 17 times from 46 games last year. If City aren't switched on they could be taken by surprise by a Swans side that will come and play their stuff. Swans' boss Brendan Rogers proved he was capable of producing that rarest of things, a winning team that also played beautiful football. I think his outfit can continue the work from last season and come away from the most expensively named stadium in the world with a result.

City are priced at 1.38 (just under 2/5) with Betfair, which to me looks like a lay. This means a Swansea win or a draw would be a winner for us. I have also toyed with the idea of laying Man City to score first at a similar price. But I decided instead to back Sinclair to score at anytime at 7.6 (a shade over 13/2) on Betfair. I have also had a speculative punt on 2-2, to reflect a good match and a good start for Swansea. This price is 34.0 (33/1). Those who wanted to be less speculative but like the reasoning might want to go for both teams to score at 2.32 (13/10) or Over 2.5 goals at 3.25 (9/4).

Lastly, Swansea are currently favourites for the drop, at 1.75 (3/4) on Betfair. Laying this is basically backing Swansea to stay up at 4/3, and we think this is a must bet for the team we think could surprise a few teams this season.

Selected bets
Risk 2 pts to win 5 - Lay Man City @ 1.38 (Betfair)
1pt Sinclair anytime goalscorer @ 7.6 (Betfair)
1/4 pt 2-2 @ 34.0 (Betfair)

Risk 3 points to win 4 - Lay Swansea to be relegated @ 1.75 (Betfair)

The PGA Championship

Well a decent set of football results with 2 of the 4 selections winning at 5.7 and 7.2 and the other two also both leading before going on to lose 3-2.

So lets hope that profitability can translate into the final golf major of the season, The PGA Championship.

Being played at on the Highlands Course at The Atlanta Athletic Club, the players will struggle in extremely hot, humid Atlanta conditions this week, and it may be worth looking at players that have succeeded in extreme heat before. The Championship was played at this course 10 years ago, when David Toms won by a shot from Phil Mickleson with a score of -15. Since then though, the course has undergone several changes to make things a bit more tricky.

The course has been lengthened by some 270 yards to a 7500 yard par 70. The greens have been changed to Bermuda grass, which should make them play fast and slick. The rough will be more penal and there are a few additional water hazards. The last four holes in particular should mean some fun and games. The 15th is a 260 yard par 3, the 16th is a difficult par 4, the 17th another par 3 protected by a lake and the 18th is a terror, a 507 yard par 4 that most will be more than happy to par at the weekend if leading.

Because the greens will be difficult to access from off the short stuff, driving accuracy is a must. The course will probably favour true ball strikers. The stats show 11 of the last 12 winners have been calendar year winners, and as always, players who win or even compete closely the week before a major don't always have the best records the following week.

Here are the Giant Guinea Pig's Selections for the week

Dustin Johnson has the long game to cover the course, and has shown enough in recent majors that he will win one. This PGA Championship course should suit him nicely, and he played well enough last week but missed a whole heap of putts that would have seen him much further up the board.

YE Yang famously became the first Asian male to win a major when he took this tournament down in 2009, and compatriot KJ Choi showed at the Players' Championship that he has the game to win the biggest events. The available 70/1 is huge for a player of his calibre. He perhaps hasnt shown his best form since the Players win, but he will be back to his best for this, and his magic with the irons will suit The Highlands Course down to the ground.

Peter Hanson has been exceptional this year, and he showed when competing and eventually finishing 7th at Congressional in the US Open both that he has the game to succeed at the very top and that this sort of track suits him down to the ground. He had a good run at Firestone last week, finishing 21st and can run into a place or better here.

Simon Dyson is turning into a very accomplished golfer, 9th in the Open he warmed up for this by finishing 33rd at Firestone. This was accomplished by three rounds in the 60s as recovery after an opening round 77. Dyson won the Irish Open two weeks ago, and has also recorded top 5 finishes in the BMW Championship, the Spanish and Sicilian Opens. Moreover, Dyson has a good record in this Championship, finishing 6th in 2007 and 12th last year. In his current form he cannot be ignored at 125/1.

KT Kim is one of the rising stars of the game and the talented Korean shot three rounds of 66 to finish T6 last week at the Bridgestone Invitational. Only a second round 72 stopped him from being right in contention. At 150/1 I dont mind taking a risk on Kim again.

SELECTIONS (all each way, 6 places)

2pts Dustin Johnson  @ 28/1 Totesport/Boyles

1pt KJ Choi @ 70/1 Boylesport 

1pt Peter Hanson  @ 100/1 Paddy Power 

1pt Simon Dyson  @ 125/1 PaddyPower 

1pt KT Kim  @ 150/1 Paddy Power

Carling Cup First Round Ties

The Carling Cup starts this evening, and where games go ahead, there could be some value in following the lower league sides against their more accomplished rivals.

The draw is split geographically these days, and also seeded. This means that in many cases, ties involve League 2 sides against fairly local sides from  higher divisions. The fixtures clash however, with an International week, and with the usual spate of injuries, many of the Championship teams will field sides unrecognisable from last Saturday's league curtain raisers.

Four teams that look especially good value tonight are Shrewsbury, Northampton, Bradford and Crewe. Respectively, they travel to Derby, Ipswich, Bradford and Preston.

Shrewsbury had a decent opening win on Saturday against promotion fancies Oxford, and have a decent record of knocking out teams from a higher level in this tournament, including Charlton last season. Derby have several injury worries and a number of players on International duty and 5.8 on Betfair looks a viable price on the Shrews.

Northampton go to Ipswich, who again have to make several changes. Northampton have happy memories of this tournament, getting to the 4th round last season in a run that saw them gain a famous win at Anfield. 7.2 on Betfair again looks a fair price for an away win here.

Bradford have a local derby against rivals Leeds. Like Shrewsbury and Northampton their chances will be helped by the changes their hosts will have to make from Saturday. Leeds seem to have the most injury worries, especially in defence, and again have players on International duty. Bradford didnt have the best of starts on Saturday but they will be roared on by a massive following, and 8.8 looks very big for an upset.

Crewe is a slightly different kettle of fish, as Preston are now in League 1 and they dont have as many International call ups as the other sides. Preston lost 4-2 at home to Colchester in their opener, but Crewe were also disappointing, losing 3-0 to Swindon, but Crewe have a decent record of upsets in this competition and another one here would be no surprise with the pressure for league results off.

Recommendations (all Betfair)
Derby County v SHREWSBURY TOWN @ 5.7
Ipswich v NORTHAMPTON @ 7.2
Leeds v BRADFORD @ 8.8
Preston v CREWE @ 5.5