Daily Tennis Tip: Wimbledon 2011

Lisicki is a good bet at 10/11 to beat Bartoli.

She has only ever beaten twice at Wimbledon, once in her first game by Bartoli as an 18 year old and once by Safina when she was world no. 1, and that was after she had beaten Kutnetzova and Wozniacki.
She is in great form in 2011 and has already beaten Bartoli, who struggled to beat a woeful Serena Williams last up.

3 points on Lisicki

Under 21 European Championship Final

Spain take on Switzerland tonight in the final of the u21s. All the money is for spain, who are now a best price 4/6, or 2/5 to lift the trophy. As good as they have looked, they failed to beat England and scraped past Belarus.

The Swiss, on the other hand, havent conceded a goal yet, looked good in the semi against the fancied Czechs and will give Spain a test tonight. This column has already recommended a bet on Spain to lift the trophy at 8/13, but I also recommend a bet in the half time/full time market by backing DRAW/SPAIN @ 5.0 on Betfair.

I also think 0-0 is a likely score, so by starting with the two bets, you will be in a good position if the first half is tight. If it is the current 1.7 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS will also look good.

Recommended bets:
10 points under 2.5 goals @ 1.71
3 points draw ht/Spain ft @ 5.0
2 points 0-0 @ 9.4

Tour de France 2011: Preview and tips

Overview:

The biggest farce surrounding this year’s Tour centres around overall favourite, Alberto Contador. He is the subject of an on-going doping investigation, after testing positive for the banned clenbuterol during last year’s race. Contador claimed the failed test was caused by eating contaminated beef. He was cleared initially, but a final hearing will come after the Tour. However, you never can tell with professional cycling, and a final scene twist is never out of the question.

Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck, like in 2010, are set to go head-to-head on July 2^nd. Only 39 seconds separated them in Paris last year, which was the 5^th smallest winning margin ever. Many people are talking about Andy Schleck’s slipped chain costing him a possible win, but they readily forget the Paris-Roubaix cobbles that allowed Schleck to pinch a minute on with the assistance of Cancellara. In its place early on this year’s route, there will be a great spectacle of a 23km Team Time Trial which could provide Cancellara with a similar platform to drive the Schlecks ahead in the General Classification.

Stages:

It is not until mid-way through the tour, on Bastille Day, that the mountains get truly nasty. There are 3 finishing climbs on the stage into Luz-Ardiden, including the vicious Col de Tourmalet. Another mountain-top finish in the Pyrennes into Plateau de Beille will separate the main contenders.

A gruelling last week is in store in the Alps, with the continual 200km grind of stage 18 up the Col Agnel, Izoard and the mighty Galibier (which provides the highest finish in Tour history). Following this there will be the unusual spectacle of a 100km stage, but the riders will be peddling in the shadow of the famous hairpins bends of Alpe d’Huez. This is such a short stage that the main contenders may attack very early on up the Telegraphe and Galibier.

Finally, there is a 42.5 Individual Time Trial at Grenoble before the Champs-Elysees, This is run on the same course as in the Dauphine, so riders who have already competed over it are at an advantage.

Form:

A lot has been made of form going into this year, with Britain’s Bradley Wiggins looking every bit the powerful ‘rouleur’ who can stick with the contenders on the mountain-tops. Cadel Evans had a subdued Dauphine and, despite a more promising performance on the penultimate stage, it looked like he had left a little bit to work on. Both riders were cooked after the Giro d’Italia in 2010 and come much fresher and better prepared this time. Team Sky are now a year older and wiser and are no longer Tour virgins.

Alberto Contador was imperious in what was a gruelling and monstrous Giro. Conversely, whispers have started about the Schlecks after a fairly unimpressive Tour de Suisse for both brothers, but this was just leg-stretching. Ivan Basso has been completely anonymous in his build-up, perhaps using the Dauphine to view some rather nice scenery.

Verdict:

Yellow

Contador’s Saxobank team have lost a lot of riders to Schleck’s new team, Leopard-Trek. This will lend a further interesting dynamic to the rivalry for the maillot jaune. Saxobank have a strong mix of mostly Spaniards and Danes, but Leopard-Trek have the edge with riders like Cancellara, Voigt and Frank Schleck. Expect Contador to have a strong Pyrenees but fade in the last week after a long Giro and Tour. ANDY SCHLECK (Best price: 12/5) will be the only one in contention to capitalise.

For the podium, there is no Menchov this time; his new team Geox-TMC didn’t get a licence from UCI. It is wide open and will pay to go each way at big prices, rather than with the ‘without Big 2’ market (as a 'left-field' attack could stick in the Alps). Wiggins is targeting 3^rd place, but Team Sky might also fade in the final week. The Grenoble time trial gives him a very realistic chance. Evans will stay with the leaders in the most part, but his climbing style is exposed by rapid attacks. Samuel Sanchez’s Euskaltel team will concentrate on breakaways and stage wins, and lose too much time in the team trial. Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, Ryder Hesjedal and Edvald Boassen Hagen will have a sniff at enormous prices and Jurgen van den Broeck is in prime form and one of the most improved climbers in the peloton. However, FRANK SCHLECK (bp 55/1 ew) is a similar price to van den Broeck and the race may pan out for him to attack on Alpe d’Huez as the brothers look to expose any weakness in Contador. He is a proven Tour rider, crashed out last year and has the edge over the other podium contenders.

Green

MARK CAVENDISH has fewer pancake-flat routes to suit the sprinters, as there are a lot of mid-category lumpy stages. Last year’s narrow defeat in the points classification to Petacchi has taught the Manx Missile what it will take to win the green jersey this year. His team are rock-solid, and withstanding an early propensity to crash, he will notch up 5 stage wins and take green in Paris.

Polka-dot

It is more difficult to bet pre-race on this market than in the past, when a rider like Virenque would be a given to claim the mountain-climber mantle. Particularly as one bad day can turn the focus of an overall contender to stage wins or the polka-dot jersey. Without Rodriguez, Cunego has a chance, but could be blowing too hard after the Tour de Suisse and doesn’t ever seem to fire for Le Tour. It is also not beyond possibility that a podium contender will pick this prize up by accident, as they have been getting closer in recent years.

French teams have taken a liking to the sartorial panache of the polka-dot jersey with Bouygues Telecom’s Chartreaux topping the climbing points last year. In JOHN GADRET and Nicolas Roche, AG2r have good GC riders, but one could possibly recalibrate their sights if they fall out of the top 10.

Outright winner - Andy Schleck 2pts @ 12/5

To place - Frank Schleck 1pt ew @ 55/1

Green Jersey - Mark Cavendish 3pts @ 6/4

Polka-dot Jersey - John Gadret 1pt @ 33/1

Top 6 - Levi Leipheimer 1pt, Ryder Hesjedal 1pt

Golf's BMW International Open

I turn my attention to the European Tour, and the BMW International in Munich. This is the most prestigious German tournament on the calendar, so it is no surprise to see 2008 winner Martin Kaymer in the field. More of a surprise is Dustin Johnson, who is clearly trying to play more tournaments worldwide to broaden his horizons and game. These two are favourites, but neither showed the greatest form last week at Congressional, and I think it is worth taking them both on. Kaymer's game still hasn’t come back to its best since the swing changes he made ahead of Augusta, and you feel that this tournament cannot have been number 1 priority on the calendar for Dustin.

Next in the market comes Sergio who has been showing much improved form in recent weeks, but while his demeanor is so sullen, and his putter so unco-operative, it is difficult to back him with any confidence. Young Italian superstar Matteo Mannassero is next in the betting, and whilst he clearly is a major talent, his fall from contention in Turin two weeks ago shows he isnt the finished article yet, and while his game is clearly improving; he seems to have added about 20 yards with the big stick this year alone; he is probably underpriced on his achievements.

As always, having several towards the top of the field that are opposable means there is some value further down the list. The first selection is ROSS FISHER at 33/1. Fisher has had a couple of barren years, but is one of the most talented on the tour. It was only two years ago he looked the most likely European to pick up a major, getting in contention in the Masters, the Open and the US Open without ever quite getting home. Since becoming a father Fisher has not hit the same heights, but the Ryder Cup player has shown some signs of a return to form this year. He was 15th in the Masters, his best ever position, before a poor final round led to a disappointing 39th in his home tournament BMW Championship. He struggled in the Welsh Open and just missed out on qualification for the US Open. It is this which I feel could give him the incentive he needs to raise his game and get back to the top of his form, starting with the BMW International Open, a tournament he has always performed well in, and improved every year. 86th in 2006, he was 26th in 2007, 12th in 2008 and 2nd last year.

The second pick is Ricardo Gonzalez, at 100/1. Gonzalez has a similar game to his compatriot, Angel Cabrera. He has some decent finishes in this tournament with three top 20s, including a 4th in 2007. A big hitting shotmaker he is in top form currently, with a 4th place finish in Wales and a 13th place at Wentworth. Gonzalez has 4 wins on the European Tour, but only one since 2003, which came at the 2009 SAS Masters. He seems to be in the zone at the moment though, and it would be no surprise to see him competing this week.

The third pick is big hitting Frenchman Victor Dubuisson. He blasted his way into contention in Wales before dropping away on the Sunday, and then almost repeated the trick in Turin, when a 10-under 2nd round 62 saw him threaten the leaders going into the weekend. His lack of consistency told over the weekend, where rounds of 72 and 71 saw him fade back into 39th, but every week is a learning experience for him and at 125/1 he is well worth a dabble to make the lessons pay off handsomely.

Next pick is David Howell, at 200/1. Howell is currently 72nd on the Race to Dubai list, but has played some decent golf at times this year, finishing 11th in Andalucia and 5th in Qatar. More importantly, Howell is a past winner of this tournament, taking it down in 2005. We have seen a few veterans do well this season, like Paul Lawrie, David Toms and just last week, Davis Love played some superb stuff at Congressional. It would be no surprise to see Howell turn the clock back and plot his way round the Golfclub Munchen.

Last pick is Dubuisson's playing partner, Jin Jeong. Jeong is a 21 year old Korean who sprang to the attention when he won the British Amateur Open in 2010. He then followed this up with a 14th place finish in the Open itself that year. Although Jeong hasn’t achieved that much on the European Tour in his other appearances, he is a talented links player and can make an impact round here.

Fisher 4 pts e/w @ 33/1 Will Hill
Gonzalez 2 pt ew @ 100/1 Totesport
Dubuisson 1.5 pt e/w @ 125/1 Skybet
Howell 1pt e/w @ 200/1 Totesport
Jeong .5pt e/w @ 750/1 Totesport
Total staked 20 points

An animal of few words

These are genuine vocalisations that I, as a guinea pig, regularly make:

Wheek - A loud noise, the name of which is onomatopoeic, also known as a Whistle. An expression of general excitement, it may occur in response to the presence of my owner, being fed or a last minute winner scored by a team I have backed. It is sometimes used to find other guinea pigs if we are running. If I am lost, I may wheek for assistance.

Bubbling or Purring - This sound is made when we guinea pigs are enjoying ourselves, such as when being petted, held or watching the Sunday of a particularly exciting golf tournament with a couple of players in contention. One may also make this sound when grooming, crawling around to investigate a new place, or when given food.

Rumbling - This sound is normally related to dominance within a group, though it can also come as a response being scared or angry. In these cases the rumble often sounds higher and the body vibrates slightly. While courting, males like myself usually purr deeply, swaying and circling the female, in a behavior called "rumblestrutting". A low rumble while walking away reluctantly shows passive resistance.

Chutting and Whining - These are sounds made in pursuit situations, by the pursuer and pursuee, respectively.

Chattering - This sound is made by rapidly gnashing the teeth, and is generally a sign of warning. Guinea pigs tend to raise their heads when making this sound. A more relaxed type of gnashing often means the guinea pig wants a treat that is somewhere nearby but out of reach, or when encouraging a tennis player to actually serve the ball properly for once in a while when there's money riding on it.

Squealing or Shrieking - A high-pitched sound of discontent, in response to pain or danger or a three putt at a crucial stage.

Chirping - This less-common sound, likened to bird song, seems to be related to stress, or when a baby guinea pig wants to be fed. Very rarely, the chirping will last for several minutes.

So, you ask, how does Steve Noire decipher my tips? In time, you will understand...

Young Euros

In the European Championship u-21s, SPAIN outright 8/13 with Skybet have to be followed. This seems like a very short price at first glance but Spain have simply been head and shoulders above their opposition so far that this will prove to be an excellent bet. They face outsiders Belarus in the semi final, who only made it through the group due to Denmark's incompetence, and then they will probably face the Swiss in the final, a match I would expect them to be 4/9 to win.

The French Champion Hurdle

As an animal, I have an insight into horses that is deeper than yours. I can get into their minds, whilst you are left blaming the jockey.

The French Champion Hurdle takes place today at Auteuil and my selection runs there. When French raider Makfi won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket he was available at 40/1 in most places and was trading at 80 on Betfair, however the price on the Tote was 12/1 due to the weight of French money. The French could only bet via the Tote, whereas when the boot is on the other foot, like today, we have the option to take our own industry SP today or to take the PMU (Pari-mutuel urbain).

The PMU works in the same way as the Tote, meaning the price for each horse is directly dependent on the number of bets staked on each runner. France are represented in the race today by the fancied Bel la Vie and the less fancied Roi du Val, and the price for these runners on the PMU is likely to be much shorter than the English industry SP. This means there is likely to be value on the English and Irish trained runners, namely Grand Crus, Thousand Stars, Mourad and Final Approach. To take the PMU stress that you want to take that price on your betting slip, or if betting by phone, stress it to your operator. Make sure they take PMU bets. Most should.

Of the runners from Britain and Ireland, Grand Crus will be the shortest price following its narrow defeat to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but there has to be a suspicion that this race is something of an afterthought for the Pipe yard. The fact that Mullins comes into this three-handed makes me think this race has been high on the agenda.

Of Mullins' trio, Thousand Stars has a lot going for it, having come second to Bel la Vie in the warm up; the Prix la Barka, here at Auteuil in May and with Ruby taking the ride today. The extended 3m 1f trip is new ground for Thousand Stars, however. Final Approach also ran in that race, but finished further back. Casey takes the ride, but it would be a surprise to see Final Approach winning today.

Mullins' third horse is MOURAD, ridden today by Katie Walsh. Mourad didn't compete in the Prix la Barka, but does have experience at Auteuil as a youngster. Mourad's third in the World Hurdle is impressive form. Mourad has two and three quarter lengths to make up on Big Buck's, but that will be factored into the price today. I expect Mourad will be the least well known to the French public, and as such, we should be getting a good price.

The recommendation is 2 points staked on PMU win Mourad and 2 points PMU place. Just make sure your bookmaker will accept PMU bets. Most will.