I've just spoken to Paul Nicholls. Okay, kidding - how could I do that?! I tweeted him.
GP: So @PFNicholls, what can Dodging Bullets achieve? Can it win the Triumph Hurdle?
PN: Hope so.
That's as good as nailed on.
2pts e/w Dodging Bullets to win the Triumph Hurdle @ 40/1 Coral
I'm no mug, no mug at all.
Wednesday 8 February 2012
Tuesday 27 September 2011
Today's Top Tip - 2:20 Sedgefield
Just Dave's last run can be excused by illness and he is sure to be in the reckoning in this novice hurdle.
2:20 Sedgefield - JUST DAVE 2 pts @ 2/1
Let's continue the winning run and make it 5/5!
2:20 Sedgefield - JUST DAVE 2 pts @ 2/1
Let's continue the winning run and make it 5/5!
Sunday 25 September 2011
Super League Playoff Wigan v Catalan
Let's keep the run going, but stray from the horses. I'm investing some of yesterday's winnings into Wigan -12 on the handicaps against Catalan Dragons. I still expect Wigan to make the Grand Final and run out comfortable winners today.
3pts Wigan -12 handicap 10/11 with Paddypower
As Steve Noire has lampooned Sam Tomkins in his blog, it's time to get behind the Cherry and Whites!
3pts Wigan -12 handicap 10/11 with Paddypower
As Steve Noire has lampooned Sam Tomkins in his blog, it's time to get behind the Cherry and Whites!
Saturday 24 September 2011
Friday 23 September 2011
Today's Jump Action Tips at Worcester:
1:40 Platinum 7/2
3:20 Vincitore 15/8
5:05 Hazy Tom 7/4
Platinum is a Rebecca Curtis-trained animal who looked good on the flat in France, trained by Andre Fabre. Vincitore is a Longsdon runner who won a 3 mile novice hurdle during the summer. Hazy Tom won well at Bangor and gets enough weight from Thepsis of Icaria to warrant our selection.
Let's go for glory with a 1pt patent!
3:20 Vincitore 15/8
5:05 Hazy Tom 7/4
Platinum is a Rebecca Curtis-trained animal who looked good on the flat in France, trained by Andre Fabre. Vincitore is a Longsdon runner who won a 3 mile novice hurdle during the summer. Hazy Tom won well at Bangor and gets enough weight from Thepsis of Icaria to warrant our selection.
Let's go for glory with a 1pt patent!
Tuesday 13 September 2011
The Guinness Kerry National Trends and Picks - Wed 14/09/11 at 16:15
10 Year Trends for the Kerry National:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
http://www.themalton.com/ Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Carrying 10-10 or more
• Officially rated 126 or higher
• Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
• Ran over hurdles last time out
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 3F+
• Won a chase worth 12K+
• Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
• Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
• First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
• Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
• Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
• Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
http://www.themalton.com/ Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Carrying 10-10 or more
• Officially rated 126 or higher
• Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
• Ran over hurdles last time out
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 3F+
• Won a chase worth 12K+
• Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
• Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
• First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
• Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
• Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
• Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
The three of interest:
Blazing Tempo - 8/1 with PP. Fits almost all the key trends. 5th in the Jewson the best form on offer. Interesting that Coral are going as short as 5/1
Minella Boys 25/1 VC. Low weight but should go really well.
Looking at the going, its currently soft/heavy and there is apparently a danger of postponement if there's any more rain. All these three have form on soft or softer.
Saturday 3 September 2011
Saturday Football Picks
Hmmmm, lovely - lower league Saturday bets are my forte.
League 1:
Carlisle v MK Dons - 7/4
Hartlepool v Exeter - 5/4
League 2:
Southend v Northampton - 6/5
2 pt singles and 1 pt treble
Aldershot v Cheltenham - 3/1
Torquay v Macclesfield - 100/30
2pt singles and 1 pt treble
League 1:
Carlisle v MK Dons - 7/4
Hartlepool v Exeter - 5/4
League 2:
Southend v Northampton - 6/5
2 pt singles and 1 pt treble
Aldershot v Cheltenham - 3/1
Torquay v Macclesfield - 100/30
2pt singles and 1 pt treble
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