Today's Top Tip - 2:20 Sedgefield

Just Dave's last run can be excused by illness and he is sure to be in the reckoning in this novice hurdle.

2:20 Sedgefield - JUST DAVE 2 pts @ 2/1

Let's continue the winning run and make it 5/5!

Super League Playoff Wigan v Catalan

Let's keep the run going, but stray from the horses. I'm investing some of yesterday's winnings into Wigan -12 on the handicaps against Catalan Dragons. I still expect Wigan to make the Grand Final and run out comfortable winners today.

3pts Wigan -12 handicap 10/11 with Paddypower

As Steve Noire has lampooned Sam Tomkins in his blog, it's time to get behind the Cherry and Whites!

Today's Equine Tip

Magnifique Etoile in the 5:10 at Market Rasen 3pts @ Evs

Today's Jump Action Tips at Worcester:

1:40 Platinum 7/2
3:20 Vincitore 15/8
5:05 Hazy Tom 7/4

Platinum is a Rebecca Curtis-trained animal who looked good on the flat in France, trained by Andre Fabre. Vincitore is a Longsdon runner who won a 3 mile novice hurdle during the summer. Hazy Tom won well at Bangor and gets enough weight from Thepsis of Icaria to warrant our selection.

Let's go for glory with a 1pt patent!

The Guinness Kerry National Trends and Picks - Wed 14/09/11 at 16:15

10 Year Trends for the Kerry National:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
http://www.themalton.com/ Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.

Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 6 to 9
•    Carrying 10-10 or more
•    Officially rated 126 or higher
•    Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
•    Ran over hurdles last time out
•    Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
•    Second or third season chaser
•    Won over 2M 3F+
•    Won a chase worth 12K+
•    Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
•    Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
•    First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
•    Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
•    Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
•    Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)

The three of interest:

Blazing Tempo - 8/1 with PP. Fits almost all the key trends. 5th in the Jewson the best form on offer. Interesting that Coral are going as short as 5/1

ADAMS ISLAND - 11/1 with Lads, as short as 8/1 in places. Fell at Cheltenham in Bensalem's race but had attracted pre-race support. Nolan is a genius in these handicaps so must be respected. Low racing weight as well.

Minella Boys 25/1 VC. Low weight but should go really well. 

Looking at the going, its currently soft/heavy and there is apparently a danger of postponement if there's any more rain. All these three have form on soft or softer.

Saturday Football Picks

Hmmmm, lovely - lower league Saturday bets are my forte.

League 1:
Carlisle v MK Dons - 7/4
Hartlepool v Exeter - 5/4

League 2:
Southend v Northampton - 6/5
2 pt singles and 1 pt treble

Aldershot v Cheltenham - 3/1
Torquay v Macclesfield - 100/30
2pt singles and 1 pt treble

Back Bantams to stop Owls hooting

New regulations in the Johnstone Paint Trophy mean managers must field a line up that features 6 starting players from their last league fixture, or 6 players from their next league fixture. Many managers wont be used to having a rule telling them who they can pick, and I can see the typical reaction being that managers will do their best to change their team, which will mean 'resting' their best 5 players.

As League One teams may well see this tournament as even more of a waste of time than their League Two counterparts, it may pay to look for a few shocks. I certainly think the way to approach this is to look for teams who have something to play for.

Hereford travel to Bournemouth and may be worth taking a chance on tonight. Bournemouth have lost four on the spin in League 1, and will probably look on this as an opportunity to rest some of their senior players. Hereford, 23rd in League 2, will look to give a number of new signings an opportunity to prove themselves, and I think the 6.6 about Hereford is worth a small play.

Burton have been very difficult to beat so far this season, and they will be looking forward to the visit of Sheffield United to the Pirelli Stadium. Sheffield United are another team who will look on this tournament as getting in the way of their promotion campaign, and there wont be a tear shed if the Blades arent in the hat for the next round.

Bradford (nap) will be one side who surely wont play a weakened side. with new manager Phil Parkinson in place, and fresh off a 4-2 win against Barnet. Bradford will be well up for the visit of rivals Sheffield Wednesday, and are worth backing to upset them at 3.4. Bradford came very close to beating Championship side Leeds in the Carling Cup, and against League 1 Wednesday, will have another opportunity to upset Yorkshire rivals.

Lastly, Exeter are quite short against local rivals Plymouth at 1.61, but Plymouth are in all sorts of trouble on and off the pitch, and could face a mauling against Devon rivals here. Plymouth couldnt even find a way past the leakiest defence in world football on Saturday, going down 1-0 at home to Crewe, and even a weakened Exeter side should find enough to beat the Pilgrims in this sorry state.

3pts Exeter v Plymouth @ 1.61
2pts Bradford v Sheff Weds @ 3.4
1pt Burton v Sheff Utd @ 4
1pt Bournemouth v Hereford @ 6.6

Barca to dismantle Villarreal

Tonight sees the prospect of a La Liga licking. The following selections have appeal:

First goalscorer
Pedro @ 7.2, Fabregas @ 10.5 - 2 pts each

Anytime goalscorer
Messi @ 1.62 - 4 pts

Correct scoreline
4-0 @ 15, 5-0 @ 27 - 1 pt each

To score in both halves
Barca  @ 1.75 - 4 pts

Vamos!

Back Vale to Slam Stanley

In the Premier League I fancy the chances of Swansea and Blackburn.

Swansea are my biggest bet of the day today. I think they were fantastic against Man City for an hour, before eventually being swatted away when the big boys flexed their muscles, but against Wigan in front of their home crowd for their first ever Premier League game I can see a convincing win.

Blackburn are a selection mainly because I think Villa look a very poor side this season. I can actually see both these sides struggling, and the only positive piece of transfer news for Villa fans, who are normally miserable anyway, was the capture of Shay Given. He kept Fulham at bay but I can see Blackburn nicking a goal 
past him this afternoon and that might be enough.

In the Championship Southampton play Millwall and I have gone for +2.5 goals @ 1.95. Southampton scored hatfuls in League One last season and they have gone about life in the Championship in the same way. Millwall were 2-0 up against Posh before conceding two late goals for a 2-2 draw, and they are the sort of damaging matches that leads to introspection. I can see Southampton getting at least a couple again today, and wouldnt be surprised to see Millwall score too.

I have backed Crystal Palace at 5.1 to win at Hull. Hull are a decent enough side but confidence is low after a 4-1 mauling at Leeds whereas the Palace changing room must be jumping after they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with two late goals agaisnt Coventry in midweek.

In League 1 I think Hartlepool are a bit overpriced judging by what they have done so far this season, being 4.6 away at Stevenage. Stevenage are a solid outfit but I fancy Hartlepool to nick an away win this afternoon.

In League 2 I have stuck with Port Vale who have started life back under Mickey Adams in fine form, with a comfortable win and two decent draw. With Tom Pope playing up with Marc Richards they have an impressive frontline, and their midfield is one of the best in the division. Accrington are consistently underrated but Im going to risk making that mistake an oppose them today.

3 pts SWANSEA v Wigan @ 2.1
3 pts PORT VALE v Accrington @ 2.32
3 pts Southampton v Millwall OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.95
1pt treble SWANSEA, PORT VALE & Southampton v Millwall OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 8.66
2 pts Stevenage v HARTLEPOOL @ 4.6
1 pt Hull v CRYSTAL PALACE @ 5.1
1 pt Aston Villa v BLACKBURN @ 6.2


Total staked = 14 pts

Crazy Gang to Punish Pilgrims

I got it wrong yesterday and thought Citeh might be a bit rusteh, but they were simply stunning in the second half. I went to '98 Atletico v Santander match where Aguero scored a couple of beauties in a 4-1 win and have been following his progress since then but that was an outstanding debut. I was right about one thing in my preview, Etihad would be pleased with the association with what I thoguht would be the best match to watch of the weekend's fixtures.

Anyway, there's a few that scream value tonight. I would have liked to oppose Arsenal with their absences if they were playing against last year's Udinese side, but the prices look about right to me. Udinese will try and sit back, hitting Arsenal on the counter, which they are very good at, so it will be interesting to see if Arsenal's defence holds up. 1-1 or even 2-1 would be a pretty shaky result to take over there.

Domestically, there are a few selections.

3pts Plymouth v WIMBLEDON @ 2.86. Plymouth were dismantled piece by piece by Rotherham and Le Fondre on Saturday, and they look a very inexperienced side. Carl Fletcher is out for tonight's game as well, which weakens them further. Meanwhile, Wimbledon have had a decent start to life, losing a little unluckily to Bristol Rovers in their season opener before getting underway with a win at the weekend. I expect the euphoria to continue tonight, and The Crazy Gang to inflict further grief on Plymouth fans.

3pts Crewe v Rotherham OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.84. Crewe have been overs 3/3 in their three matches so far, whilst Rotherham have been overs 2/3 times. Crewe are an inexperienced side filled with exciting attacking talents, but who are often let down by defensive lapses. Rotherham have Adam le Fondre, amongst others, and come off a 4-1 win (from 1-0 down) at Plymouth.

2pts Burton v PORT VALE @ 3.1 This is almost a derby, its about 20 minutes down the A50 from Stoke to Burton. Vale, fresh off a 3-1 win at Barnet, will be roared on by 2500 nutters tonight, and I expect them to come away with 3 points. The big question for me was whether Mickey Adams would be able to work his magic again this season? He had them top of the league last year when he left to go to Sheff Utd, and the team is virtually the same, but there is boardroom unrest this year that could have undermined his efforts. In Gary Roberts they have one of the best midfielders around, and it looks like Adams has him firing, and I cant see Vale being available at 3.1, whoever they play, many times this season.

1pt CRYSTAL PALACE v Coventry @ 2.14. The Sky Blues seem so low key this year that you could be forgiven for thinking they are almost down already. Palace, on the other hand, seem to be making slow and steady strides away from the relegation fodder they were early last season. Palace have a few missing tonight, but not as many as Coventry, who surely cant expect much from tonight other than to keep it tight for as long as they can.

3pts Plymouth v WIMBLEDON @ 2.86 (19/10) Betfair
3pts Crewe v Rotherham Over 2.5 @ 1.84 (17/20) Betfair
2pts Burton v PORT VALE @ 3.1 (21/10) Betfair
1pt CRYSTAL PALACE v Coventry @ 2.14 (23/20) Betfair
1pt treble - Wimbledon, Port Vale, Crewe v Rotherham +2.5 goals @ 14.33 (13/1) Betfair

Total staked = 10pts

Elegant Swans to Float at Eastlands

The 'Noisy Neighbours' open their Premier League campaign with what looks on paper to be an easy start, a home game to newly promoted Swansea City. The City of Manchester Stadium (Eastlands to you and I) has just been renamed in the most lucrative naming rights deal ever as the Etihad City of Manchester Stadium. Etihad might well look at that deal as a bargain after tonight, because I am expecting the game of the weekend, in what should be an excellent 'advert' for English football. Both teams play lovely football, both teams are pretty tight at the back, and there should be a superb atmosphere from both sets of fans.

City have spent big in the summer, capturing Gael Clichy, Stefan Savic and Sergio Aguero, and while I expect all three to be big hits in time, it remains to be seen how ready they are for the start of the season. Aguero, who will make a wonderful player for City, is said to be only fit enough to play 45 minutes. Tevez is back, but will be too stuffed full of humble pie to be able to contribute much, and Dzeko is still finding his feet in English football. Their Community Shield defeat to Manchester United may have given them some much needed match practice, but it will also have been somewhat deflating, not only because they lost from 2-0 up but also because it was a deserved defeat - they were outplayed. They will need to move on from that display fast.

Swansea, on the other hand, will be as ready as possible and raring to go. Summer signings Wayne Routledge, Danny Graham, Steven Caulker and Michael Vorm may not be household names, but if Brendan Rogers can slot them in to the same way of playing he orchestrated last year, the Swans will take to Premier League football like errrr...Swans to water. The Swans were the best footballing team outside the Premier League last season, and were defensively sound as well. In Scott Sinclair they have one of the most impressive young talents in the country and it would be no surprise to see him score tonight.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea have all failed to win on the opening day this year, and City aren't the fastest starters, with only 1 win from their last 6 openers. Also, promoted teams tend to do quite well in the first few weeks of the season. It could be argued that those facts don't have any relevance to tonight, but this one might - Swansea 'won to nil' an impressive 17 times from 46 games last year. If City aren't switched on they could be taken by surprise by a Swans side that will come and play their stuff. Swans' boss Brendan Rogers proved he was capable of producing that rarest of things, a winning team that also played beautiful football. I think his outfit can continue the work from last season and come away from the most expensively named stadium in the world with a result.

City are priced at 1.38 (just under 2/5) with Betfair, which to me looks like a lay. This means a Swansea win or a draw would be a winner for us. I have also toyed with the idea of laying Man City to score first at a similar price. But I decided instead to back Sinclair to score at anytime at 7.6 (a shade over 13/2) on Betfair. I have also had a speculative punt on 2-2, to reflect a good match and a good start for Swansea. This price is 34.0 (33/1). Those who wanted to be less speculative but like the reasoning might want to go for both teams to score at 2.32 (13/10) or Over 2.5 goals at 3.25 (9/4).

Lastly, Swansea are currently favourites for the drop, at 1.75 (3/4) on Betfair. Laying this is basically backing Swansea to stay up at 4/3, and we think this is a must bet for the team we think could surprise a few teams this season.

Selected bets
Risk 2 pts to win 5 - Lay Man City @ 1.38 (Betfair)
1pt Sinclair anytime goalscorer @ 7.6 (Betfair)
1/4 pt 2-2 @ 34.0 (Betfair)

Risk 3 points to win 4 - Lay Swansea to be relegated @ 1.75 (Betfair)

The PGA Championship

Well a decent set of football results with 2 of the 4 selections winning at 5.7 and 7.2 and the other two also both leading before going on to lose 3-2.

So lets hope that profitability can translate into the final golf major of the season, The PGA Championship.

Being played at on the Highlands Course at The Atlanta Athletic Club, the players will struggle in extremely hot, humid Atlanta conditions this week, and it may be worth looking at players that have succeeded in extreme heat before. The Championship was played at this course 10 years ago, when David Toms won by a shot from Phil Mickleson with a score of -15. Since then though, the course has undergone several changes to make things a bit more tricky.

The course has been lengthened by some 270 yards to a 7500 yard par 70. The greens have been changed to Bermuda grass, which should make them play fast and slick. The rough will be more penal and there are a few additional water hazards. The last four holes in particular should mean some fun and games. The 15th is a 260 yard par 3, the 16th is a difficult par 4, the 17th another par 3 protected by a lake and the 18th is a terror, a 507 yard par 4 that most will be more than happy to par at the weekend if leading.

Because the greens will be difficult to access from off the short stuff, driving accuracy is a must. The course will probably favour true ball strikers. The stats show 11 of the last 12 winners have been calendar year winners, and as always, players who win or even compete closely the week before a major don't always have the best records the following week.

Here are the Giant Guinea Pig's Selections for the week

Dustin Johnson has the long game to cover the course, and has shown enough in recent majors that he will win one. This PGA Championship course should suit him nicely, and he played well enough last week but missed a whole heap of putts that would have seen him much further up the board.

YE Yang famously became the first Asian male to win a major when he took this tournament down in 2009, and compatriot KJ Choi showed at the Players' Championship that he has the game to win the biggest events. The available 70/1 is huge for a player of his calibre. He perhaps hasnt shown his best form since the Players win, but he will be back to his best for this, and his magic with the irons will suit The Highlands Course down to the ground.

Peter Hanson has been exceptional this year, and he showed when competing and eventually finishing 7th at Congressional in the US Open both that he has the game to succeed at the very top and that this sort of track suits him down to the ground. He had a good run at Firestone last week, finishing 21st and can run into a place or better here.

Simon Dyson is turning into a very accomplished golfer, 9th in the Open he warmed up for this by finishing 33rd at Firestone. This was accomplished by three rounds in the 60s as recovery after an opening round 77. Dyson won the Irish Open two weeks ago, and has also recorded top 5 finishes in the BMW Championship, the Spanish and Sicilian Opens. Moreover, Dyson has a good record in this Championship, finishing 6th in 2007 and 12th last year. In his current form he cannot be ignored at 125/1.

KT Kim is one of the rising stars of the game and the talented Korean shot three rounds of 66 to finish T6 last week at the Bridgestone Invitational. Only a second round 72 stopped him from being right in contention. At 150/1 I dont mind taking a risk on Kim again.

SELECTIONS (all each way, 6 places)

2pts Dustin Johnson  @ 28/1 Totesport/Boyles

1pt KJ Choi @ 70/1 Boylesport 

1pt Peter Hanson  @ 100/1 Paddy Power 

1pt Simon Dyson  @ 125/1 PaddyPower 

1pt KT Kim  @ 150/1 Paddy Power

Carling Cup First Round Ties

The Carling Cup starts this evening, and where games go ahead, there could be some value in following the lower league sides against their more accomplished rivals.

The draw is split geographically these days, and also seeded. This means that in many cases, ties involve League 2 sides against fairly local sides from  higher divisions. The fixtures clash however, with an International week, and with the usual spate of injuries, many of the Championship teams will field sides unrecognisable from last Saturday's league curtain raisers.

Four teams that look especially good value tonight are Shrewsbury, Northampton, Bradford and Crewe. Respectively, they travel to Derby, Ipswich, Bradford and Preston.

Shrewsbury had a decent opening win on Saturday against promotion fancies Oxford, and have a decent record of knocking out teams from a higher level in this tournament, including Charlton last season. Derby have several injury worries and a number of players on International duty and 5.8 on Betfair looks a viable price on the Shrews.

Northampton go to Ipswich, who again have to make several changes. Northampton have happy memories of this tournament, getting to the 4th round last season in a run that saw them gain a famous win at Anfield. 7.2 on Betfair again looks a fair price for an away win here.

Bradford have a local derby against rivals Leeds. Like Shrewsbury and Northampton their chances will be helped by the changes their hosts will have to make from Saturday. Leeds seem to have the most injury worries, especially in defence, and again have players on International duty. Bradford didnt have the best of starts on Saturday but they will be roared on by a massive following, and 8.8 looks very big for an upset.

Crewe is a slightly different kettle of fish, as Preston are now in League 1 and they dont have as many International call ups as the other sides. Preston lost 4-2 at home to Colchester in their opener, but Crewe were also disappointing, losing 3-0 to Swindon, but Crewe have a decent record of upsets in this competition and another one here would be no surprise with the pressure for league results off.

Recommendations (all Betfair)
Derby County v SHREWSBURY TOWN @ 5.7
Ipswich v NORTHAMPTON @ 7.2
Leeds v BRADFORD @ 8.8
Preston v CREWE @ 5.5

Football League Two 2011-12 season preview

Advised bets:
2pt ew Gillingham 16/1 Gen
1pt ew Shrewsbury 14/1 Coral
.5pt ew Crewe Alexandra 40/1 Coral and 1pt ew (handicap +22pts ) 18/1 Will Hill
1pt Morecambe to go down 11/2 Bet365
1pt Plymouth to go down 10/1 Skybet
1pt ew Constable top scorer 25/1 Will Hill
.5pt ew Byron Moore top scorer 80/1 Coral

League Two looks the most competitive it has been for some time, and a decent case can be made for any of the top 12 or so sides in the market. This preview will have a look at all the contenders, the sides watching their backs, one for the handicap market and a couple of recommendations for top goalscorer.

With the considerable resources of the two promoted sides and four relegated sides, the whole host of nearly teams from last year will  find it difficult to maintain their finishing positions. Having said that, it could be that the 3 automatic and 1 promotion place via the play offs are filled by teams who have been there, done that, and know what League 2 is all about.

The bookies have Crawley as 3/1 favourites, given their spending power, their runaway Conference win, and the perceived similarity in standard between the two divisions. There then follow a whole host of sides in the 10/1-16/1 bracket, such as Bristol Rovers, Swindon, Oxford, Gillingham, Shrewsbury and Rotherham who will all fancy their chances.

With so much that is unknown about sides like Crawley, Bristol Rovers and Swindon, it may be safer to rely on teams that were there or thereabouts last season when trying to find the League Two winners.
Shrewsbury were very unlucky not to go up last season, have no real weaknesses and the winning combination of ability and mental fortitude to go one better than last season. They are my bet to top the league.

They will be run all the way by Gillingham. Hessenthaler's Gills will attempt to prove that you can bully your way out of League 2, and with the acquisition of Kedwell and Birchall (injured for the first few months of 11/12) they may well succeed. I have the two sides so close that I have backed them both, but with a bigger stake on the Gills to take into account the larger price.

The two sides with the brightest attacking prospects may well be Oxford and Crewe. Both sides would have been up automatically last season if it wasn't for defensive frailties. They may be the two sides who contest the third automatic spot. Oxford look more solid this season and are a best priced 12/1; it may pay to instead back James Constable for the divisions top goalscorer at 25/1.

Crewe have lost last year's golden boot, Clayton Donaldson, but should still has loads of goals in them with Miller and Moore both capable of firing the Alex to glory. Both have been on fire in preseason, and Byron Moore, finding the best form of his career, is also worth a punt at 80/1 for top scorer. Miller is also likely to be right up at the top of the charts, is as short as 10/1 in places but can be backed at 16/1 with Will Hill.

Crewe are worth taking a small chance with each way at Coral's 40/1, as they are probably the best team in the division on a going day. They beat the three automatically promoted sides 2-0, 3-0 and 3-0 last season, won other games 8-0 and 7-1 and had a number of other resounding wins. You are taking a chance on a creaky defence and a woeful away record improving, but that is quite possible in Dario Gradi's second full season since taking control again. It is also worth backing Crewe on the handicap markets, and Will Hill's quote of +22 points at 18/1 looks reasonable.

Club by club breakdown:

Accrington Stanley
Home form and Proctor's leadership should again see them safe.
Relegation Best Price = 8/1 BSQ
finishing position = bottom half/mid table.

AFC Wimbledon
On a high and have a winning mentality but Kedwell a big loss up front.
BP = 33/1 Skybet
Pos = mid table/top half

Aldershot Town
Goals will be their achilles heel but excellent defence secures safety
BP = 40/1 Coral
Pos = mid table

Barnet
Great escape means spirits are high. Kabba and McLeod will get the goals to ensure safety.
Rel BP = 4/1 Skybet
Pos = bottom half but safe

Bradford City
Sleeping giants will underperform again but should see downward spiral ending
BP = 25/1 Will Hill
Pos = midtable

Bristol Rovers
Signings look good on paper for relegated Pirates but they may miss out on automatic promotion.
BP = 10/1 Gen
Pos = Play offs

Burton Albion
A number of players in and out so Pesch has a lot of work to do to find a winning side.
Rel BP = 8/1 VC
Pos = bottom half but safe

Cheltenham Town
Wes Thomas is a big loss and they could struggle again. May rely on a points deduction elsewhere.
Rel BP = 10/3 Gen
Pos = just safe

Crawley Town
Newly promoted and big spenders but too short with several players unproven at L2.
BP = 3/1 Gen
Pos = play off contenders

Crewe Alexandra
Improving youngsters should make up for departures, possible surprise outfit.
BP = 40/1 Coral
Pos = play offs

Dagenham and Redbridge
Too much power for many but goals will be the problem.
BP = 33/1 Gen
Pos = mid table

Gillingham
Hessenthaler knows all about getting out of League 2. Kedwell will provide the goals for muscular outfit
BP = 16/1 Gen
Pos = top 3

Hereford United
Goals may again be hard to come to but they should have enough to survive again.
Rel BP = 11/2 Skybet
Pos = Bottom 6

Macclesfield Town
Team spirit has seen Macc survive for 12 seasons at this level, and will be needed once again following departures.
Rel BP = 10/3 Gen
Pos = Safe

Morecambe
Last season was a big disappointment compared to the season before but it could continue to get worse.
Rel BP = 11/2 Bet 365
Pos = down

Northampton Town
Top boss and several signings but may just miss out on play offs
BP = 20/1 Coral/VC
Pos = Top half

Oxford United
Excellent form in the second half of last season, real promotion contenders.
BP = 12/1 Gen
Pos = top 4

Plymouth Argyle
Two consecutive relegations and financial woes have hurt and there could be more pain this year Rel
BP = 10/1 Skybet/Will Hill
Pos = down

Port Vale
Mickey Adams is crucial to Vale's season. If he can replicate the early 10/11 success Vale could go up but boardroom unrest could unsettle campaign.
BP = 25/1 Gen
Pos = top half

Rotherham United
Perennial nearly men will have the goals of Le Fondre but could miss out yet again.
BP = 18/1 Bet365/Skybet
Pos = play off contenders

Shrewsbury Town
Possibly the best all round unit and should contend for title BP = 14/1 Bet365/Coral Pos = Champions
Southend United
Look an improved side and top half is the least they should expect with Harris' goals.
BP = 25/1 Gen
Pos = top half

Swindon Town
Difficult to know what to expect from Di Canio's lot.
BP = 9/1 Gen
Pos = Play offs

Torquay United
A possible season of disappointment following play off heartache and departures
BP = 33/1 Gen
Pos = bottom half

The Open Championship

This week sees the players line up for the third major of the golfing season - The Open Championship, and as ever, there are a number of possible fantastic stories waiting to be told.

The venue is Royal St George, Sandwich, a course that was last used in 2003, when Ben Curtis' final round 69 was enough, along with Thomas Bjorn's collapse, to provide one of the greatest shocks in sport.

Bjorn had a 3 shot lead with 4 to play that day, but bogeyed 15, took 3 to get out of a bunker on the par 3 16th, and bogeyed 17. Bjorn had already received a 2 shot penalty in the first round for striking a bunker in anger after leaving his ball in the sand attempting a chip. His meltdown is still one of the Open Championships more memorable finishes, and many will be hoping this week lives up to the drama 8 years ago.

Bjorn himself is first reserve this week, so will only get the chance to exorcise his demons if someone withdraws. His caddie that day, Billy Foster, has a realistic chance of stopping the nightmares this week however, being on the bag for second favourite, Lee Westwood.

Tiger is conspicuous by his absence once again, and one has to wonder whether his knee, which is currently recovering from its 7th major operation, will ever let Tiger compete at full fitness ever again.

Finally, however, in the shape of US Open winner Rory Mcllroy, we have a new golfing idol to replace King Tiger. Rory won in such style at Congressional that he is rightly favourite for this event at a best price of 13/2. If he is in
Anything like the form he showed that week he could win by 5 shots or more. At St Andrews last year, Rory hit a first round 63 to lead the field at -9, before showing the pre-Congressional fragility we thought we knew so well.

The man who took full advantage last year was Luis Oosthuizen, a South African who seemingly came from nowhere, strolled about without noticing the world class field chasing his tail, and won by 7 shots from Westwood. Oosthuizen, who was a 250/1 shot, has hardly competed for wins since last year's triumph, and it is difficult to envisage a repeat performance.

Rory and 'Oostie' will be doing the lion's share of the media work this time round, and the effect this will have on their practice routines has to be taken into account. As such, this guinea pig is willing to take the Market favourite and last year's winner on. Rory hasnt played competitively since that famous win, and although he has apparently been practising hard, I would have liked to see him at least one run out coming into this event.

Next in the market come a whole host of European names, all of which are credible hopes. Westwood, currently world no.2, and Donald, who just deposed him as no.1, are ultra consistent. It is easy to see them both being there or thereabouts on the Sunday, and there will be plenty of money for them both to win, as well as for top 5 or 10 finish.

Donald was superb this week in winning the Scottish Open, and his game; peppering flags with pinpoint irons and a peerless short game; is ideal for an Open Championship. Backing him for a top 10 finish at Will Hill 10/11 is virtually buying money. No-one has ever done the Scottish/Open double, but Luke has a super chance this week.

Westwood is slightly shorter than Luke Donald in the outright markets, which is largely down to his mega consistent record in the majors. He has had 6 top 3 finishes in his last 11 majors, including 2nd last year to Oosthuizen. However, the setup at St George might not quite suit his game as well as some others, and I can see another narrow defeat this week.

USPGA winner Martin Kaymer still doesn't look back to his best, McDowell has had a tendency to chuck himself out of contention with a bad hole or two recently, Sergio has shown an encouraging return to form but could you really see him winning?

Of the other Europeans towards the top of the market, Harrington is hitting the ball superbly in practice, but professes that when he won his 3 majors he was hitting the ball much worse! Rose, Poulter and Casey are all capable of competing on their day but they would have to bring a game well in advance of anything they have demonstrated recently.

So, it may pay to look away from the European players, and back over the pond. My first pick is a player who, with the exception of Luke Donald, is in arguably the best form of anyone in the world. STEVE STRICKER may have only won a pitch and putt contest at the John Deere Classic when defending for a second time, but the manner of his win was astonishing. 


Sailing clear of the field approaching the back nine on Sunday, Stricker ran into trouble when his ball plugged in two different bunkers. At the same time, tour rookie Kyle Stanley hit 5 birdes in 6 holes two take a two shot lead. But Stanley bogeyed 18, and Stricker picked up a birdie on 17. This meant a par on the last would force a play off. This looked a tough ask when Stricker's drive found the left fairway bunker, leaving a 180 yard approach across water to a postage stamp sized green, with a lie in the trap half a yard below his feet. However, Stricker knocked his iron to 15 feet, and sank the putt from just off the green for a remarkable win.

Stricker also won the Memorial, just before the US Open in which he finished T19th. In 2011, Stricks has played 12 tournaments, made 12 cuts, had 10 top 25s, and 5 top 10s including 2 wins. He is maybe only average in driving distance, but his other attributes are perfect for The Open - with excellent driving accuracy, GIR, scrambling and putting. The difference between the John Deere Classic and The Open Championship, in terms of Course and climate may be too much for some players to cope with, but Stricker is based in Madison, Wisconsin, way in the North, and he is well used to practiscing in the wind and rain. He has no problem with links golf either, finishing 8th and 7th in The Open in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Control and patience will be two of the key attributes for this Championship and they are two things that Stricker's game is based upon. Stricker has been as big as 50/1 until recently, but 40/1 with Coral, who pay to 1/3 the odds for the first 5 places, is still well worth a punt and Stricker is the star pick for the pig.

Second pick for this event is MATT KUCHAR. Kuchar is a model of consistency, with 19 Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour in 2010 and 2011, including 7 podiums. Kuch probably doesnt win as often as he should, but he is knocking on the door so often that the wins surely arent far away. He had a good time at Castle Stuart this week, finishing T10 on -13. Although the course should play very differently from Inverness, at least he will have a week of extra prep and acclimatisation, which will have been an important part of the plan for this tournament. 


The World no. 8 doesnt have the greatest Open record; struggling to break the top 100 in most of his previous attempts. Last year's 27th was a significant improvement however, and now he is so much more confident in his game he can threaten the trophy this time round.

Kuchar is a tall man, but he has a flat swing and low ball flight that should prove ideal for links golf if the wind blows. 


Last year's Ryder Cup at Celtic Manor was further development for Kuchar, and although he only halved two matches in tandem with Stewart Cink, the experience of British conditions, very similar to Inverness this week, will stand him in good stead for The Open. I recommend backing Kuchar with Paddy Power, taking advantage of their each way terms of 7 places at 40/1.

The third pick is DANNY WILLETT. Willett was a pick from last week who didnt quite challenge after a great start when he was 5 under through 7 holes, before eventually finishing T31st on -10. Willett is a 23 year old from Sheffield who is ready to step up to the top table. Willett has course form, as in 2009 he won the English Amateur Championship here at Royal St George. He also won the Yorkshire Amateur Championship and was named as the World No. 1 Amateur. Willett hasn’t really fulfilled his potential this year, after an impressive debut year in 2010. 


He finished runner up to Martin Kaymer in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and had six other top 10s. Willett has showed some signs of a return to form in recent weeks, contending in the BMW before fading away to 24^th, before his 31st this week. He is far too good to continually stay away from the winners’ rostrum, and his game obviously fits St George, so back him with Bet 365s offer of 200/1 with 6 places.


At the same price with Sky Bet, make sure you get on ALEXANDER NOREN. Noren did reasonably well in the Us Open, coming 51st, but it was his perfomance two weeks previously, at the Welsh Open, that really catches the eye. He led from the front, and in terrible conditions, hardly put a foot wrong as he sailed two a two shot win from Gregory Bourdy and Anders Hansen. That was only his second tour win following his Omega European Masters triumph in 2009, but serves as evidence that Noren has come of age. His control on the Sunday that day was astonishing, and if he can keep his head in the same manner this week, he will have a chance of going deep in The Open.

Lastly, I recommend a bet on PAUL LAWRIE. An open winner himself in 1999, Lawrie had struggled for form until this year, not having won since 2002. But his victory in Andalucia, holding Johan Edfors at bay by a shot, was a real return to form. He has the control of a man who knows his game and has come to terms with what he can, and crucially, cannot do. After that win, Lawrie confessed that his game was in great shape, and that he was now ready to kick on again and get back in the winners' enclosure more often. He had a decent week at the Scottish Open where he ended up at -11 for a 25th place finish, and if he does find himself at the right end of the leaderboard, he is one who will not be fazed by the lights. Lawrie is worth backing at BetFred or SkyBet,. getting 6 places and 250/1.

There is bound to be shocks and drama this week, I hope that if someone gives away a 3 shot lead with 4 to play that your pick plays the Ben Curtis character, not the Thomas Bjorn.

Selections

10pts Luke Donald top 10 finish Will Hill 10/11

4 pts ew Steve Stricker 33/1 Coral (1/3 odds 5 places)

2 pts ew Matt Kuchar 40/1 Paddy Power 40/1 (7 places)

.5 pts ew Danny Willett 200/1 Bet365 (6 places)

.5 pts ew Alexander Noren 200/1 SkyBet (6 places)

.5 pts ew Paul Lawrie 250/1 BetFred/SkyBet (6 places)

Back Bell to Lash Sri Lanka

Stan James quote of 12/1 for Ian Bell to top score in Wednesday's 4th ODI at Trent Bridge looks very tempting. After much wringing of hands and searching of souls, there is a possibility of changes to England's lineup today.

This could see Finn come in for Dernbach or less likely on his home ground, Broad. With strike rates being negatively compared with Sri Lanka's and Cook safe as captain, Trott is also under pressure despite a very impressive ODI average. If he misses out this could mean Ian Bell is moved up to 5, or possibly 4. Bell has played reasonably well so far, but coming in with the tail, has often been forced into uncharacteristically aggressive slog shots to salvage increasingly desperate situations. This is not making best use Bell's ability to rotate the strike, find the gaps and nullify some of Sri Lanka's multitude of slower bowling options, and Bell's average when batting at 6 in ODIs of just over 19 reflects this.

At worst, this is a decent punt at a longish price if Bell comes in at 6 but if he is moved up it could look a very nice price.

This guinea pig is also interested in the price of Jimmy Anderson to be England's top bowler at 3/1 or better. We normally see lateral movement through the air at Trent Bridge, and with the cloud cover we will have this afternoon we should expect swing. This means Jimmy will be have his optimum bowling conditions, and he is the best on the planet in his conditions.

Selections
1pt Ian Bell top England bat 12/1 Stan James
1pt James Anderson top wicket taker 3/1 general

The Barclays Scottish Open

Barclays Scottish Open

I turn my large piggy eyes towards golf this week, and the Barclays Scottish Open. The Scottish Open is one of the most prestigious events on the European Tour, and as usual, scores of the best players in the world head over as part of their preparation for next week’s Open Championship at Royal St George’s. The ironic thing is that the course may bear little in common with next week’s course.

There is a new venue for this year’s event. Loch Lomond is suffering from financial irregularities, and Castle Stuart Golf Links hosts for the first time. Castle Stuart, near Inverness in the Scottish Highlands, should suit long drivers, especially as it is set up with wide fairways, and less punitive rough or water than might be expected, meaning you can be a bit wayward off the tee. With this in mind, our selection should be pretty long off the tee, with impressive iron and short games, and be able to string low rounds together.

The field is world class, with Donald and Westwood battling it out once again for the rankings top spot. McDowell, Mickelson, and Matt Kuchar are all at the top of the betting, as well as names like Goosen, Rose, Fisher, Harrington and the Molinaris. The Scots have some serious contenders this year, with Paul Lawrie, who won in Andulucia recently leading the list. Martin Laird, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational the same week comes home from the PGA Tour. Richie Ramsay and Steven Gallacher have contested at the right end of leaderboards in recent weeks. Even the Ryder Cup Captain and patriarch of the European Tour, Monty, has shown hints of a return to form in recent weeks.

The wildcard for this event is the weather, and it could pay to keep a sharp eye on the forecasts. As always in Britain, the temperamental conditions mean that every player is at the mercy of the wind and rain, and we may get into a situation where half the field get to play their opening two rounds in perfect conditions, and half may face storms. Generally, the weather tends to favour early tee off times, but delays can cause havoc with the schedule. The far-range forecast is for rain, so if betting in play, try to ensure you keep onside those playing in the most advantageous weather.

My number one pick for the event is RETIEF GOOSEN. Goose has been in fine form recently, with a number of decent finishes on both sides of the tour in recent weeks. Goose came 3^rd in the Fedex Classic at the start of June, before a decent run in the US Open and then a 3^rd place finish in the BMW Classic last week. He has the good all round game to challenge here, and although it is a while since he has won, he does have a good record in the Scottish Open, winning the event in 2001, and coming 6^th two years ago. Goose wont mind if the wind blows and is available at 28/1 with Paddy Power paying the top 6 places and this gerbil thinks that’s a standout bet.

PETER HANSON is rapidly becoming a top player, was boosted by his Ryder Cup debut last year and has the iron game to make a challenge in a top event. He did well in the Welsh Open back at Celtic Manor, finishing 4^th before a superb 7^th in the US Open. After a week off Hanson missed the cut in France last week, but should be primed for a big challenge here. Hanson has a best finish of 13^th place in this tournament, but should be suited by the course and is a good shout for this week at 40/1 with Boylesports, again with 6 places paid.

JOHAN EDFORS is a player who is bang back in form. The three time European Tour winner, like Hanson, didn’t have a great time in France but his form before that has been impressive. 7^th in the BMW was followed by 4^th in Wales and then 19^th in the US Open. Edfors will have happy memories of the Scottish Open as well, winning it in 2006 with a final round 2006. Edfors is a best priced 80/1 with Will Hill.

RICARDO GONZALEZ didn’t fulfil our hopes in Germany but is worth sticking with. The Argentine was  4^th in Wales, and has a game based on length and touch that should be perfect for Inverness. Gonzalez was 6^th in 2002 and is worth a shot at the price to contend again at 200/1 with Bet365, again with 6 places paid.

Lastly, DANNY WILLETT is a player who hasn’t really achieved what he should have. Willett won the English Amateur Championship at Royal St George, as well as the Yorkshire Amateur Championship and being named as the World No. 1 Amateur. Willett hasn’t really hit the heights in 2011, after an impressive debut year in 2010, where he finished runner up to Martin Kaymer in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and had six other top 10s. Willett showed some signs of a return to form in recent weeks, contending in the BMW before fading away to 24^th. He is far too good to continually stay away from the winners’ rostrum, and his long game could suit Castle Stuart perfectly.

I also recommend backing Edfors and Willett in the first round leader market.

I will post my write up for the Open Championship directly following the Scottish Open, but I will be recommending bets on Steve Stricker (currently 40/1) and Matt Kuchar (currently 50/1).

Barclays Scottish Open

3 pts e/w Retief Goosen 28/1 Paddy Power (6 places)

2 pts e/w Peter Hanson 40/1 Boylesports (6 places)

1 pt e/w Johan Edfors 80/1 Will Hill

.5 pts e/w Ricardo Gonzalez 200/1 Bet365 (6 places)

.5 pts e/w Danny Willett 150/1 Totesport

First Round Leader
.5 pts e/w Johan Edfors 66/1 Skybet
.5 pts e/w Danny Willett 125/1 Skybet

Tour de France 2011 Stage 2 - Team Time Trial

After a furious day in Le Tour today, the spectacle continues with a 23km TTT around Les Essarts. Sky look very strong this year and many have predicted Geraint Thomas to be in yellow after tomorrow's racing. Leopard-Trek will be looking to put more time into Contador with Fabian Cancellara rolling them along. Radioshack have a good unit and have trained on this course a number of times in the Tour build-up. However, they may have to settle for a podium place with strong teams like Sky and Garmin-Cervelo in the mix.

While Sky have gelled more as a unit, Garmin have more time trial specialists with Zabriskie, Millar and a number of powerful punchers. However, the preference is for COLUMBIA HTC who will be well-suited to the 23km distance and can form a glorified lead-out train, really cranking up the wattage over this short, straight track.

TTT Stage 2 winners - Columbia HTC 3pts @ 3/1

Murray, in a Wimbledon Final?

Andy Murray is my Wimbledon bet of the day. A phrase that sends the bookmakers jumping for joy. But he is closer to Nadal than the odds would suggest and he doesn't have to up his game too much to win today.

An extra bonus for Murray backers is Nadal's injury. He had an MRI before his quarter v Fish, and although that showed no signs of damage, he needed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to get through the match. The impact of playing through an injury will have to have taken it's toll and the injury is likely to be worse after a day of rest.

Nadal's game is based around power and making his opponent have to play an extra shot on every rally but if he is less mobile today Murray's job will be far easier.

5 pts Murray @ 7/4 with Hills

Daily Tennis Tip: Wimbledon 2011

Lisicki is a good bet at 10/11 to beat Bartoli.

She has only ever beaten twice at Wimbledon, once in her first game by Bartoli as an 18 year old and once by Safina when she was world no. 1, and that was after she had beaten Kutnetzova and Wozniacki.
She is in great form in 2011 and has already beaten Bartoli, who struggled to beat a woeful Serena Williams last up.

3 points on Lisicki

Under 21 European Championship Final

Spain take on Switzerland tonight in the final of the u21s. All the money is for spain, who are now a best price 4/6, or 2/5 to lift the trophy. As good as they have looked, they failed to beat England and scraped past Belarus.

The Swiss, on the other hand, havent conceded a goal yet, looked good in the semi against the fancied Czechs and will give Spain a test tonight. This column has already recommended a bet on Spain to lift the trophy at 8/13, but I also recommend a bet in the half time/full time market by backing DRAW/SPAIN @ 5.0 on Betfair.

I also think 0-0 is a likely score, so by starting with the two bets, you will be in a good position if the first half is tight. If it is the current 1.7 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS will also look good.

Recommended bets:
10 points under 2.5 goals @ 1.71
3 points draw ht/Spain ft @ 5.0
2 points 0-0 @ 9.4

Tour de France 2011: Preview and tips

Overview:

The biggest farce surrounding this year’s Tour centres around overall favourite, Alberto Contador. He is the subject of an on-going doping investigation, after testing positive for the banned clenbuterol during last year’s race. Contador claimed the failed test was caused by eating contaminated beef. He was cleared initially, but a final hearing will come after the Tour. However, you never can tell with professional cycling, and a final scene twist is never out of the question.

Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck, like in 2010, are set to go head-to-head on July 2^nd. Only 39 seconds separated them in Paris last year, which was the 5^th smallest winning margin ever. Many people are talking about Andy Schleck’s slipped chain costing him a possible win, but they readily forget the Paris-Roubaix cobbles that allowed Schleck to pinch a minute on with the assistance of Cancellara. In its place early on this year’s route, there will be a great spectacle of a 23km Team Time Trial which could provide Cancellara with a similar platform to drive the Schlecks ahead in the General Classification.

Stages:

It is not until mid-way through the tour, on Bastille Day, that the mountains get truly nasty. There are 3 finishing climbs on the stage into Luz-Ardiden, including the vicious Col de Tourmalet. Another mountain-top finish in the Pyrennes into Plateau de Beille will separate the main contenders.

A gruelling last week is in store in the Alps, with the continual 200km grind of stage 18 up the Col Agnel, Izoard and the mighty Galibier (which provides the highest finish in Tour history). Following this there will be the unusual spectacle of a 100km stage, but the riders will be peddling in the shadow of the famous hairpins bends of Alpe d’Huez. This is such a short stage that the main contenders may attack very early on up the Telegraphe and Galibier.

Finally, there is a 42.5 Individual Time Trial at Grenoble before the Champs-Elysees, This is run on the same course as in the Dauphine, so riders who have already competed over it are at an advantage.

Form:

A lot has been made of form going into this year, with Britain’s Bradley Wiggins looking every bit the powerful ‘rouleur’ who can stick with the contenders on the mountain-tops. Cadel Evans had a subdued Dauphine and, despite a more promising performance on the penultimate stage, it looked like he had left a little bit to work on. Both riders were cooked after the Giro d’Italia in 2010 and come much fresher and better prepared this time. Team Sky are now a year older and wiser and are no longer Tour virgins.

Alberto Contador was imperious in what was a gruelling and monstrous Giro. Conversely, whispers have started about the Schlecks after a fairly unimpressive Tour de Suisse for both brothers, but this was just leg-stretching. Ivan Basso has been completely anonymous in his build-up, perhaps using the Dauphine to view some rather nice scenery.

Verdict:

Yellow

Contador’s Saxobank team have lost a lot of riders to Schleck’s new team, Leopard-Trek. This will lend a further interesting dynamic to the rivalry for the maillot jaune. Saxobank have a strong mix of mostly Spaniards and Danes, but Leopard-Trek have the edge with riders like Cancellara, Voigt and Frank Schleck. Expect Contador to have a strong Pyrenees but fade in the last week after a long Giro and Tour. ANDY SCHLECK (Best price: 12/5) will be the only one in contention to capitalise.

For the podium, there is no Menchov this time; his new team Geox-TMC didn’t get a licence from UCI. It is wide open and will pay to go each way at big prices, rather than with the ‘without Big 2’ market (as a 'left-field' attack could stick in the Alps). Wiggins is targeting 3^rd place, but Team Sky might also fade in the final week. The Grenoble time trial gives him a very realistic chance. Evans will stay with the leaders in the most part, but his climbing style is exposed by rapid attacks. Samuel Sanchez’s Euskaltel team will concentrate on breakaways and stage wins, and lose too much time in the team trial. Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, Ryder Hesjedal and Edvald Boassen Hagen will have a sniff at enormous prices and Jurgen van den Broeck is in prime form and one of the most improved climbers in the peloton. However, FRANK SCHLECK (bp 55/1 ew) is a similar price to van den Broeck and the race may pan out for him to attack on Alpe d’Huez as the brothers look to expose any weakness in Contador. He is a proven Tour rider, crashed out last year and has the edge over the other podium contenders.

Green

MARK CAVENDISH has fewer pancake-flat routes to suit the sprinters, as there are a lot of mid-category lumpy stages. Last year’s narrow defeat in the points classification to Petacchi has taught the Manx Missile what it will take to win the green jersey this year. His team are rock-solid, and withstanding an early propensity to crash, he will notch up 5 stage wins and take green in Paris.

Polka-dot

It is more difficult to bet pre-race on this market than in the past, when a rider like Virenque would be a given to claim the mountain-climber mantle. Particularly as one bad day can turn the focus of an overall contender to stage wins or the polka-dot jersey. Without Rodriguez, Cunego has a chance, but could be blowing too hard after the Tour de Suisse and doesn’t ever seem to fire for Le Tour. It is also not beyond possibility that a podium contender will pick this prize up by accident, as they have been getting closer in recent years.

French teams have taken a liking to the sartorial panache of the polka-dot jersey with Bouygues Telecom’s Chartreaux topping the climbing points last year. In JOHN GADRET and Nicolas Roche, AG2r have good GC riders, but one could possibly recalibrate their sights if they fall out of the top 10.

Outright winner - Andy Schleck 2pts @ 12/5

To place - Frank Schleck 1pt ew @ 55/1

Green Jersey - Mark Cavendish 3pts @ 6/4

Polka-dot Jersey - John Gadret 1pt @ 33/1

Top 6 - Levi Leipheimer 1pt, Ryder Hesjedal 1pt

Golf's BMW International Open

I turn my attention to the European Tour, and the BMW International in Munich. This is the most prestigious German tournament on the calendar, so it is no surprise to see 2008 winner Martin Kaymer in the field. More of a surprise is Dustin Johnson, who is clearly trying to play more tournaments worldwide to broaden his horizons and game. These two are favourites, but neither showed the greatest form last week at Congressional, and I think it is worth taking them both on. Kaymer's game still hasn’t come back to its best since the swing changes he made ahead of Augusta, and you feel that this tournament cannot have been number 1 priority on the calendar for Dustin.

Next in the market comes Sergio who has been showing much improved form in recent weeks, but while his demeanor is so sullen, and his putter so unco-operative, it is difficult to back him with any confidence. Young Italian superstar Matteo Mannassero is next in the betting, and whilst he clearly is a major talent, his fall from contention in Turin two weeks ago shows he isnt the finished article yet, and while his game is clearly improving; he seems to have added about 20 yards with the big stick this year alone; he is probably underpriced on his achievements.

As always, having several towards the top of the field that are opposable means there is some value further down the list. The first selection is ROSS FISHER at 33/1. Fisher has had a couple of barren years, but is one of the most talented on the tour. It was only two years ago he looked the most likely European to pick up a major, getting in contention in the Masters, the Open and the US Open without ever quite getting home. Since becoming a father Fisher has not hit the same heights, but the Ryder Cup player has shown some signs of a return to form this year. He was 15th in the Masters, his best ever position, before a poor final round led to a disappointing 39th in his home tournament BMW Championship. He struggled in the Welsh Open and just missed out on qualification for the US Open. It is this which I feel could give him the incentive he needs to raise his game and get back to the top of his form, starting with the BMW International Open, a tournament he has always performed well in, and improved every year. 86th in 2006, he was 26th in 2007, 12th in 2008 and 2nd last year.

The second pick is Ricardo Gonzalez, at 100/1. Gonzalez has a similar game to his compatriot, Angel Cabrera. He has some decent finishes in this tournament with three top 20s, including a 4th in 2007. A big hitting shotmaker he is in top form currently, with a 4th place finish in Wales and a 13th place at Wentworth. Gonzalez has 4 wins on the European Tour, but only one since 2003, which came at the 2009 SAS Masters. He seems to be in the zone at the moment though, and it would be no surprise to see him competing this week.

The third pick is big hitting Frenchman Victor Dubuisson. He blasted his way into contention in Wales before dropping away on the Sunday, and then almost repeated the trick in Turin, when a 10-under 2nd round 62 saw him threaten the leaders going into the weekend. His lack of consistency told over the weekend, where rounds of 72 and 71 saw him fade back into 39th, but every week is a learning experience for him and at 125/1 he is well worth a dabble to make the lessons pay off handsomely.

Next pick is David Howell, at 200/1. Howell is currently 72nd on the Race to Dubai list, but has played some decent golf at times this year, finishing 11th in Andalucia and 5th in Qatar. More importantly, Howell is a past winner of this tournament, taking it down in 2005. We have seen a few veterans do well this season, like Paul Lawrie, David Toms and just last week, Davis Love played some superb stuff at Congressional. It would be no surprise to see Howell turn the clock back and plot his way round the Golfclub Munchen.

Last pick is Dubuisson's playing partner, Jin Jeong. Jeong is a 21 year old Korean who sprang to the attention when he won the British Amateur Open in 2010. He then followed this up with a 14th place finish in the Open itself that year. Although Jeong hasn’t achieved that much on the European Tour in his other appearances, he is a talented links player and can make an impact round here.

Fisher 4 pts e/w @ 33/1 Will Hill
Gonzalez 2 pt ew @ 100/1 Totesport
Dubuisson 1.5 pt e/w @ 125/1 Skybet
Howell 1pt e/w @ 200/1 Totesport
Jeong .5pt e/w @ 750/1 Totesport
Total staked 20 points

An animal of few words

These are genuine vocalisations that I, as a guinea pig, regularly make:

Wheek - A loud noise, the name of which is onomatopoeic, also known as a Whistle. An expression of general excitement, it may occur in response to the presence of my owner, being fed or a last minute winner scored by a team I have backed. It is sometimes used to find other guinea pigs if we are running. If I am lost, I may wheek for assistance.

Bubbling or Purring - This sound is made when we guinea pigs are enjoying ourselves, such as when being petted, held or watching the Sunday of a particularly exciting golf tournament with a couple of players in contention. One may also make this sound when grooming, crawling around to investigate a new place, or when given food.

Rumbling - This sound is normally related to dominance within a group, though it can also come as a response being scared or angry. In these cases the rumble often sounds higher and the body vibrates slightly. While courting, males like myself usually purr deeply, swaying and circling the female, in a behavior called "rumblestrutting". A low rumble while walking away reluctantly shows passive resistance.

Chutting and Whining - These are sounds made in pursuit situations, by the pursuer and pursuee, respectively.

Chattering - This sound is made by rapidly gnashing the teeth, and is generally a sign of warning. Guinea pigs tend to raise their heads when making this sound. A more relaxed type of gnashing often means the guinea pig wants a treat that is somewhere nearby but out of reach, or when encouraging a tennis player to actually serve the ball properly for once in a while when there's money riding on it.

Squealing or Shrieking - A high-pitched sound of discontent, in response to pain or danger or a three putt at a crucial stage.

Chirping - This less-common sound, likened to bird song, seems to be related to stress, or when a baby guinea pig wants to be fed. Very rarely, the chirping will last for several minutes.

So, you ask, how does Steve Noire decipher my tips? In time, you will understand...

Young Euros

In the European Championship u-21s, SPAIN outright 8/13 with Skybet have to be followed. This seems like a very short price at first glance but Spain have simply been head and shoulders above their opposition so far that this will prove to be an excellent bet. They face outsiders Belarus in the semi final, who only made it through the group due to Denmark's incompetence, and then they will probably face the Swiss in the final, a match I would expect them to be 4/9 to win.

The French Champion Hurdle

As an animal, I have an insight into horses that is deeper than yours. I can get into their minds, whilst you are left blaming the jockey.

The French Champion Hurdle takes place today at Auteuil and my selection runs there. When French raider Makfi won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket he was available at 40/1 in most places and was trading at 80 on Betfair, however the price on the Tote was 12/1 due to the weight of French money. The French could only bet via the Tote, whereas when the boot is on the other foot, like today, we have the option to take our own industry SP today or to take the PMU (Pari-mutuel urbain).

The PMU works in the same way as the Tote, meaning the price for each horse is directly dependent on the number of bets staked on each runner. France are represented in the race today by the fancied Bel la Vie and the less fancied Roi du Val, and the price for these runners on the PMU is likely to be much shorter than the English industry SP. This means there is likely to be value on the English and Irish trained runners, namely Grand Crus, Thousand Stars, Mourad and Final Approach. To take the PMU stress that you want to take that price on your betting slip, or if betting by phone, stress it to your operator. Make sure they take PMU bets. Most should.

Of the runners from Britain and Ireland, Grand Crus will be the shortest price following its narrow defeat to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but there has to be a suspicion that this race is something of an afterthought for the Pipe yard. The fact that Mullins comes into this three-handed makes me think this race has been high on the agenda.

Of Mullins' trio, Thousand Stars has a lot going for it, having come second to Bel la Vie in the warm up; the Prix la Barka, here at Auteuil in May and with Ruby taking the ride today. The extended 3m 1f trip is new ground for Thousand Stars, however. Final Approach also ran in that race, but finished further back. Casey takes the ride, but it would be a surprise to see Final Approach winning today.

Mullins' third horse is MOURAD, ridden today by Katie Walsh. Mourad didn't compete in the Prix la Barka, but does have experience at Auteuil as a youngster. Mourad's third in the World Hurdle is impressive form. Mourad has two and three quarter lengths to make up on Big Buck's, but that will be factored into the price today. I expect Mourad will be the least well known to the French public, and as such, we should be getting a good price.

The recommendation is 2 points staked on PMU win Mourad and 2 points PMU place. Just make sure your bookmaker will accept PMU bets. Most will.